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राजनीति·ईरान युद्धविराम

अमेरिका ने नए ईरान समझौते/संघर्ष विराम विस्तार की घोषणा की...?

icon for अमेरिका ने नए ईरान समझौते/संघर्ष विराम विस्तार की घोषणा की...?
राजनीति·ईरान युद्धविराम

अमेरिका ने नए ईरान समझौते/संघर्ष विराम विस्तार की घोषणा की...?

$35,256,361 वॉल्यूम

30 जून, 2026
Polymarket

$35,256,361 वॉल्यूम

Polymarket

12 जून

$1,049,905 वॉल्यूम

6%

15 जून

$488,451 वॉल्यूम

10%

30 जून

$1,909,379 वॉल्यूम

43%

31 जुलाई

$390,547 वॉल्यूम

65%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative memorandum of understanding in late May 2026 to extend the existing ceasefire by 60 days, ease shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, and advance talks on Iran's nuclear program, though the framework awaits final US presidential approval. This follows the April 2026 Pakistan-mediated two-week truce in the broader conflict, which President Trump extended indefinitely pending a unified Iranian proposal, while maintaining the naval blockade. Direct high-level talks have occurred in Islamabad, with ongoing focus on sanctions relief, ballistic missiles, and regional de-escalation. Any announcement of a formal extension or new agreement would hinge on these negotiations progressing or stalling amid enforcement of current restrictions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.

A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:

1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.

2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.

Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.

The following would qualify:
- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”
- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”
- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”
- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.

The following would not qualify:
- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.
- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached
- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.

An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.

This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
वॉल्यूम
$35,256,361
बाज़ार खुला
May 25, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative memorandum of understanding in late May 2026 to extend the existing ceasefire by 60 days, ease shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, and advance talks on Iran's nuclear program, though the framework awaits final US presidential approval. This follows the April 2026 Pakistan-mediated two-week truce in the broader conflict, which President Trump extended indefinitely pending a unified Iranian proposal, while maintaining the naval blockade. Direct high-level talks have occurred in Islamabad, with ongoing focus on sanctions relief, ballistic missiles, and regional de-escalation. Any announcement of a formal extension or new agreement would hinge on these negotiations progressing or stalling amid enforcement of current restrictions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.

A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:

1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.

2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.

Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.

The following would qualify:
- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”
- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”
- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”
- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.

The following would not qualify:
- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.
- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached
- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.

An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.

This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
वॉल्यूम
$35,256,361
बाज़ार खुला
May 25, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

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