Ongoing US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and persistent restrictions on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with recent diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran creating uncertainty over normalization timing. Shipping data show daily transits remain well below pre-conflict norms of over 100 vessels amid Iranian vetting requirements, selective corridors, and residual naval risks, supporting the leading 0-10 outcome at 32.5% implied probability. The tight clustering around 20-40 (27.0%) reflects debate over whether a potential weekend deal will rapidly restore volumes or if structural controls and insurance dynamics sustain subdued flows into late June. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital consensus on these geopolitical and operational variables ahead of month-end resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
0-10 33%
20-40 27%
40-60 17.4%
60+ 14.2%
$59,104 वॉल्यूम
$59,104 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
0-10
33%
10-20
14%
20-40
27%
40-60
17%
60+
14%
0-10 33%
20-40 27%
40-60 17.4%
60+ 14.2%
$59,104 वॉल्यूम
$59,104 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
0-10
$24,286 वॉल्यूम
33%
10-20
$6,257 वॉल्यूम
14%
20-40
$6,085 वॉल्यूम
27%
40-60
$6,598 वॉल्यूम
17%
60+
$16,328 वॉल्यूम
14%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and persistent restrictions on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with recent diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran creating uncertainty over normalization timing. Shipping data show daily transits remain well below pre-conflict norms of over 100 vessels amid Iranian vetting requirements, selective corridors, and residual naval risks, supporting the leading 0-10 outcome at 32.5% implied probability. The tight clustering around 20-40 (27.0%) reflects debate over whether a potential weekend deal will rapidly restore volumes or if structural controls and insurance dynamics sustain subdued flows into late June. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital consensus on these geopolitical and operational variables ahead of month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$59,104समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and persistent restrictions on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with recent diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran creating uncertainty over normalization timing. Shipping data show daily transits remain well below pre-conflict norms of over 100 vessels amid Iranian vetting requirements, selective corridors, and residual naval risks, supporting the leading 0-10 outcome at 32.5% implied probability. The tight clustering around 20-40 (27.0%) reflects debate over whether a potential weekend deal will rapidly restore volumes or if structural controls and insurance dynamics sustain subdued flows into late June. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital consensus on these geopolitical and operational variables ahead of month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$59,104समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and persistent restrictions on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with recent diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran creating uncertainty over normalization timing. Shipping data show daily transits remain well below pre-conflict norms of over 100 vessels amid Iranian vetting requirements, selective corridors, and residual naval risks, supporting the leading 0-10 outcome at 32.5% implied probability. The tight clustering around 20-40 (27.0%) reflects debate over whether a potential weekend deal will rapidly restore volumes or if structural controls and insurance dynamics sustain subdued flows into late June. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital consensus on these geopolitical and operational variables ahead of month-end resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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