NATO's treaty framework and institutional mechanisms, centered on collective defense against external threats, have sustained alliance cohesion amid pressures from Russian military actions and broader geopolitical competition. Economic interdependence, regular diplomatic consultations, and a historical absence of direct clashes between members reinforce trader consensus at 96% against an intra-NATO conflict before 2027. Lingering bilateral tensions, such as those between Turkey and Greece over maritime boundaries, or potential leadership shifts prompting divergent foreign policies, represent the primary scenarios that could still elevate risks, though alliance procedures and shared strategic priorities continue to channel disputes toward negotiation rather than escalation.