The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and control over security forces following the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel underpin trader consensus that collapse by May 31 remains highly unlikely. Recent developments include Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's public calls for national unity on May 15 amid economic strains from port blockades and infrastructure damage, alongside government measures to stabilize food supplies and steel production while suppressing potential unrest through Basij mobilization. Leadership transitions after Ali Khamenei's February assassination have proceeded without defections or power vacuums, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains operational authority. With the resolution window closing in under two weeks, only an unforeseen cascade of widespread protests or external escalation could alter the current dynamics.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या ईरानी शासन 31 मई तक गिर जाएगा?
क्या ईरानी शासन 31 मई तक गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
$20,898,913 वॉल्यूम
$20,898,913 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
हाँ
$20,898,913 वॉल्यूम
$20,898,913 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and control over security forces following the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel underpin trader consensus that collapse by May 31 remains highly unlikely. Recent developments include Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's public calls for national unity on May 15 amid economic strains from port blockades and infrastructure damage, alongside government measures to stabilize food supplies and steel production while suppressing potential unrest through Basij mobilization. Leadership transitions after Ali Khamenei's February assassination have proceeded without defections or power vacuums, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains operational authority. With the resolution window closing in under two weeks, only an unforeseen cascade of widespread protests or external escalation could alter the current dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$20,898,913समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and control over security forces following the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel underpin trader consensus that collapse by May 31 remains highly unlikely. Recent developments include Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's public calls for national unity on May 15 amid economic strains from port blockades and infrastructure damage, alongside government measures to stabilize food supplies and steel production while suppressing potential unrest through Basij mobilization. Leadership transitions after Ali Khamenei's February assassination have proceeded without defections or power vacuums, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains operational authority. With the resolution window closing in under two weeks, only an unforeseen cascade of widespread protests or external escalation could alter the current dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$20,898,934समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and control over security forces following the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel underpin trader consensus that collapse by May 31 remains highly unlikely. Recent developments include Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's public calls for national unity on May 15 amid economic strains from port blockades and infrastructure damage, alongside government measures to stabilize food supplies and steel production while suppressing potential unrest through Basij mobilization. Leadership transitions after Ali Khamenei's February assassination have proceeded without defections or power vacuums, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains operational authority. With the resolution window closing in under two weeks, only an unforeseen cascade of widespread protests or external escalation could alter the current dynamics.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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