**Traders assign a 63.5% implied probability to a Trump-Marcos meeting by December 31, 2026, largely reflecting the Philippine president’s July 2025 invitation for Trump to attend the ASEAN Summit hosted in Manila in November 2026.** That gathering coincides with milestones in U.S.-Philippine diplomatic and defense ties, including the 80th anniversary of relations and the 75th anniversary of the Mutual Defense Treaty. A July 2026 phone call between the leaders addressed regional security and economic issues, building on Marcos’s earlier White House visit and ongoing coordination through the U.S. State and Defense Departments. No official confirmation of Trump’s attendance has been issued, leaving room for scheduling or geopolitical shifts, yet sustained bilateral engagement and the compressed timeline through year-end keep the “Yes” side favored in market pricing.