Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, including refined orbital models from surveys like Pan-STARRS, has identified no asteroids or comets capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No." Historical flux data show such atmospheric events occur only a few times per decade at most, with none forecasted this year amid comprehensive tracking of objects down to meter scale. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations for a small undetected body, though both face significant observational barriers before December 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% peluang
$116,717 Vol.
$116,717 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% peluang
$116,717 Vol.
$116,717 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, including refined orbital models from surveys like Pan-STARRS, has identified no asteroids or comets capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No." Historical flux data show such atmospheric events occur only a few times per decade at most, with none forecasted this year amid comprehensive tracking of objects down to meter scale. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations for a small undetected body, though both face significant observational barriers before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,717Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, including refined orbital models from surveys like Pan-STARRS, has identified no asteroids or comets capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No." Historical flux data show such atmospheric events occur only a few times per decade at most, with none forecasted this year amid comprehensive tracking of objects down to meter scale. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations for a small undetected body, though both face significant observational barriers before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,717Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, including refined orbital models from surveys like Pan-STARRS, has identified no asteroids or comets capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No." Historical flux data show such atmospheric events occur only a few times per decade at most, with none forecasted this year amid comprehensive tracking of objects down to meter scale. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations for a small undetected body, though both face significant observational barriers before December 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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