The overwhelming 97% market consensus against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 reflects NASA’s ongoing near-Earth object surveys, which have identified no asteroids or comets of the required 50–100 meter size on trajectories intersecting Earth next year. Such events occur roughly once every few thousand years on average, based on impact frequency models derived from crater records and telescopic observations. Continuous monitoring by programs like Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey, combined with orbital calculations from the Minor Planet Center, shows no objects meeting the energy threshold of about 1 megaton TNT equivalent. While an undiscovered small body could theoretically appear with short warning, current detection completeness for this size range makes that scenario statistically remote through the end of 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$106,033 Vol.
$106,033 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$106,033 Vol.
$106,033 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The overwhelming 97% market consensus against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 reflects NASA’s ongoing near-Earth object surveys, which have identified no asteroids or comets of the required 50–100 meter size on trajectories intersecting Earth next year. Such events occur roughly once every few thousand years on average, based on impact frequency models derived from crater records and telescopic observations. Continuous monitoring by programs like Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey, combined with orbital calculations from the Minor Planet Center, shows no objects meeting the energy threshold of about 1 megaton TNT equivalent. While an undiscovered small body could theoretically appear with short warning, current detection completeness for this size range makes that scenario statistically remote through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$106,033Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The overwhelming 97% market consensus against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 reflects NASA’s ongoing near-Earth object surveys, which have identified no asteroids or comets of the required 50–100 meter size on trajectories intersecting Earth next year. Such events occur roughly once every few thousand years on average, based on impact frequency models derived from crater records and telescopic observations. Continuous monitoring by programs like Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey, combined with orbital calculations from the Minor Planet Center, shows no objects meeting the energy threshold of about 1 megaton TNT equivalent. While an undiscovered small body could theoretically appear with short warning, current detection completeness for this size range makes that scenario statistically remote through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$106,033Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming 97% market consensus against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 reflects NASA’s ongoing near-Earth object surveys, which have identified no asteroids or comets of the required 50–100 meter size on trajectories intersecting Earth next year. Such events occur roughly once every few thousand years on average, based on impact frequency models derived from crater records and telescopic observations. Continuous monitoring by programs like Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey, combined with orbital calculations from the Minor Planet Center, shows no objects meeting the energy threshold of about 1 megaton TNT equivalent. While an undiscovered small body could theoretically appear with short warning, current detection completeness for this size range makes that scenario statistically remote through the end of 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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