Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense systems has identified no near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton yield on collision trajectories through 2026, driving trader consensus toward a 98.5% probability of no such strike. Ongoing optical and radar surveys, combined with Sentry and Scout impact-monitoring tools, have cataloged threats years in advance, while recent 2026 fireballs over Ohio and elsewhere released only hundreds of tons of TNT—far below threshold. A 1-megaton event remains statistically rare, expected only once every several thousand years. The slim uncertainty stems mainly from the remote chance of a late-detected small asteroid, though denser observation networks continue to reduce that possibility before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% peluang
$116,343 Vol.
$116,343 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
2% peluang
$116,343 Vol.
$116,343 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense systems has identified no near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton yield on collision trajectories through 2026, driving trader consensus toward a 98.5% probability of no such strike. Ongoing optical and radar surveys, combined with Sentry and Scout impact-monitoring tools, have cataloged threats years in advance, while recent 2026 fireballs over Ohio and elsewhere released only hundreds of tons of TNT—far below threshold. A 1-megaton event remains statistically rare, expected only once every several thousand years. The slim uncertainty stems mainly from the remote chance of a late-detected small asteroid, though denser observation networks continue to reduce that possibility before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,343Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense systems has identified no near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton yield on collision trajectories through 2026, driving trader consensus toward a 98.5% probability of no such strike. Ongoing optical and radar surveys, combined with Sentry and Scout impact-monitoring tools, have cataloged threats years in advance, while recent 2026 fireballs over Ohio and elsewhere released only hundreds of tons of TNT—far below threshold. A 1-megaton event remains statistically rare, expected only once every several thousand years. The slim uncertainty stems mainly from the remote chance of a late-detected small asteroid, though denser observation networks continue to reduce that possibility before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,343Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense systems has identified no near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 1-megaton yield on collision trajectories through 2026, driving trader consensus toward a 98.5% probability of no such strike. Ongoing optical and radar surveys, combined with Sentry and Scout impact-monitoring tools, have cataloged threats years in advance, while recent 2026 fireballs over Ohio and elsewhere released only hundreds of tons of TNT—far below threshold. A 1-megaton event remains statistically rare, expected only once every several thousand years. The slim uncertainty stems mainly from the remote chance of a late-detected small asteroid, though denser observation networks continue to reduce that possibility before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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