NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact monitoring system currently list no known asteroids or comets on trajectories that could deliver a 5 kt or greater airburst through December 2026. Small objects flagged on risk lists for 2026 passages, such as 2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ, are limited to diameters under 30 meters with cumulative impact odds far below 0.01 percent, far too low to shift trader consensus. Historical bolide data from NASA’s fireball repository and CTBTO infrasound networks show multi-kiloton events occur only once every few years on average, anchoring the 74.5 percent “No” probability. No new orbital observations or model revisions in recent months have introduced credible threats capable of moving the market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
26% peluang
$312,195 Vol.
$312,195 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
26% peluang
$312,195 Vol.
$312,195 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact monitoring system currently list no known asteroids or comets on trajectories that could deliver a 5 kt or greater airburst through December 2026. Small objects flagged on risk lists for 2026 passages, such as 2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ, are limited to diameters under 30 meters with cumulative impact odds far below 0.01 percent, far too low to shift trader consensus. Historical bolide data from NASA’s fireball repository and CTBTO infrasound networks show multi-kiloton events occur only once every few years on average, anchoring the 74.5 percent “No” probability. No new orbital observations or model revisions in recent months have introduced credible threats capable of moving the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$312,195Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact monitoring system currently list no known asteroids or comets on trajectories that could deliver a 5 kt or greater airburst through December 2026. Small objects flagged on risk lists for 2026 passages, such as 2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ, are limited to diameters under 30 meters with cumulative impact odds far below 0.01 percent, far too low to shift trader consensus. Historical bolide data from NASA’s fireball repository and CTBTO infrasound networks show multi-kiloton events occur only once every few years on average, anchoring the 74.5 percent “No” probability. No new orbital observations or model revisions in recent months have introduced credible threats capable of moving the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$312,195Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact monitoring system currently list no known asteroids or comets on trajectories that could deliver a 5 kt or greater airburst through December 2026. Small objects flagged on risk lists for 2026 passages, such as 2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ, are limited to diameters under 30 meters with cumulative impact odds far below 0.01 percent, far too low to shift trader consensus. Historical bolide data from NASA’s fireball repository and CTBTO infrasound networks show multi-kiloton events occur only once every few years on average, anchoring the 74.5 percent “No” probability. No new orbital observations or model revisions in recent months have introduced credible threats capable of moving the market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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