The low annual frequency of 5-kiloton-scale bolides—historically around 0.2 to 0.5 events per year globally—underpins the 57.5% market-implied odds favoring no strike in 2026. No qualifying airburst has occurred through mid-May, with the largest reported fireball (March 17 over Ohio) releasing only 0.25 kt according to American Meteor Society and CNEOS data. NASA’s Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks confirm no near-Earth objects larger than a few meters on collision trajectories, while recent close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 remain safely distant. Traders weigh this against the inherent uncertainty of undetected small impactors, with resolution hinging on year-end fireball observations from satellite and ground-based systems.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The low annual frequency of 5-kiloton-scale bolides—historically around 0.2 to 0.5 events per year globally—underpins the 57.5% market-implied odds favoring no strike in 2026. No qualifying airburst has occurred through mid-May, with the largest reported fireball (March 17 over Ohio) releasing only 0.25 kt according to American Meteor Society and CNEOS data. NASA’s Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks confirm no near-Earth objects larger than a few meters on collision trajectories, while recent close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 remain safely distant. Traders weigh this against the inherent uncertainty of undetected small impactors, with resolution hinging on year-end fireball observations from satellite and ground-based systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$300,653Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The low annual frequency of 5-kiloton-scale bolides—historically around 0.2 to 0.5 events per year globally—underpins the 57.5% market-implied odds favoring no strike in 2026. No qualifying airburst has occurred through mid-May, with the largest reported fireball (March 17 over Ohio) releasing only 0.25 kt according to American Meteor Society and CNEOS data. NASA’s Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks confirm no near-Earth objects larger than a few meters on collision trajectories, while recent close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 remain safely distant. Traders weigh this against the inherent uncertainty of undetected small impactors, with resolution hinging on year-end fireball observations from satellite and ground-based systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$300,653Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The low annual frequency of 5-kiloton-scale bolides—historically around 0.2 to 0.5 events per year globally—underpins the 57.5% market-implied odds favoring no strike in 2026. No qualifying airburst has occurred through mid-May, with the largest reported fireball (March 17 over Ohio) releasing only 0.25 kt according to American Meteor Society and CNEOS data. NASA’s Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks confirm no near-Earth objects larger than a few meters on collision trajectories, while recent close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 remain safely distant. Traders weigh this against the inherent uncertainty of undetected small impactors, with resolution hinging on year-end fireball observations from satellite and ground-based systems.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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