Bank of Canada policy rate decisions hinge on the balance between persistent energy-driven inflation risks and softer domestic growth amid U.S. tariff uncertainty and Middle East tensions. Following the April 29, 2026 hold at 2.25 percent, the central bank raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.2 percent while projecting average inflation at 2.3 percent, leaving the implied probability of at least one hike this year near even. Trader consensus reflects divided views on whether cost pressures will force a move before year-end or whether labor market weakness and trade volatility will keep the overnight rate unchanged through December. The June 10 meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely provide the clearest signals for any shift in market-implied odds.