The Bank of Russia's July 24 cut of 25 basis points to 14.00% reflected a measured easing cycle amid stable underlying inflation near 4–5% annualized, despite a temporary spike in headline inflation and expectations driven by fuel supply disruptions. Moderating lending growth, softer corporate demand expectations, and a downgraded 2026 GDP forecast to 0–1% have supported trader views that policymakers will favor continuity at the September 11 meeting to avoid reversing recent disinflation progress. Elevated fiscal expansion risks and one-off price pressures continue to cap expectations for another reduction, while the absence of broad overheating or external shocks keeps the probability of a hike negligible.