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Politik·Pemilihan Umum Global

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

icon for Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Politik·Pemilihan Umum Global

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.6%

Mike Cubbard 15.8%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.1%

Polymarket

$45,729 Vol.

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.6%

Mike Cubbard 15.8%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.1%

Polymarket

$45,729 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$20,246 Vol.

1%

Seán Kyne

$3,514 Vol.

33%

Niall Murphy

$1,833 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,646 Vol.

10%

Orla Nugent

$1,641 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$3,887 Vol.

7%

Denman Rooke

$1,612 Vol.

1%

Noel Thomas

$5,031 Vol.

44%

Thomas Welby

$1,697 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$2,113 Vol.

11%

Mark Lohan

$2,509 Vol.

4%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The Galway West by-election on 22 May to replace Catherine Connolly, elected president in October 2025, shows trader consensus centering on Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas and Fine Gael's Seán Kyne as the primary contenders. Recent polling from early May indicates a narrow first-preference lead for Kyne over Thomas, with Labour's Helen Ogbu placing third amid a fragmented left-wing vote. Thomas's positioning stems from his established local profile as a former councillor with strong Connemara backing and prior independent gains, while Kyne emphasizes his Senate and former Dáil experience alongside government-party resources. The market's modest edge for Thomas over Kyne aligns with historical by-election patterns favoring independents on transfers in multi-candidate races focused on local issues such as cost of living and housing. Other listed candidates trail due to narrower party or regional support.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$45,729
Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The Galway West by-election on 22 May to replace Catherine Connolly, elected president in October 2025, shows trader consensus centering on Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas and Fine Gael's Seán Kyne as the primary contenders. Recent polling from early May indicates a narrow first-preference lead for Kyne over Thomas, with Labour's Helen Ogbu placing third amid a fragmented left-wing vote. Thomas's positioning stems from his established local profile as a former councillor with strong Connemara backing and prior independent gains, while Kyne emphasizes his Senate and former Dáil experience alongside government-party resources. The market's modest edge for Thomas over Kyne aligns with historical by-election patterns favoring independents on transfers in multi-candidate races focused on local issues such as cost of living and housing. Other listed candidates trail due to narrower party or regional support.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$45,729
Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Galway-West By-Election Winner?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 11 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Noel Thomas" di 44%, diikuti oleh "Seán Kyne" di 33%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 44¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 44% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" telah menghasilkan $45.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 26, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Galway-West By-Election Winner?," jelajahi 11 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" adalah "Noel Thomas" di 44%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 44% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Seán Kyne" di 33%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.