Hawaii's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 8 features incumbent U.S. Rep. Ed Case facing a challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, along with candidates including Jennifer Booker, Ben Fatula, and Nicholas Kiswanto. Recent polling from late 2025 showed Case ahead by roughly 18 points, yet the race has drawn national attention as one of several primaries targeting moderate Democrats. Keohokalole's campaign has gained visibility through endorsements from progressive groups, local forums, and media appearances emphasizing housing, the Jones Act, and federal policy differences. Minor candidates and the open nature of the August primary keep probabilities fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over turnout among Oahu voters, late endorsements, and any shifts in campaign momentum before ballots are cast.