Stable high-pressure systems dominating southeastern Brazil are driving clear skies, strong solar insolation, and low humidity levels that favor efficient daytime heating in São Paulo, positioning maximum temperatures near 31–32°C as the market consensus for August 20. Ensemble guidance and official INMET outlooks indicate predominantly stable conditions with negligible precipitation risk and light winds, consistent with recent verified highs around 29°C on similar days and modestly above the long-term August climatological average of 23–25°C. Minor model spreads allow limited probability mass on 30°C or 33°C outcomes, while an ongoing broader warming influence from developing El Niño conditions supports the elevated baseline. Updated forecast runs and afternoon observations on the 20th represent the key near-term data points that could shift implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 20?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 20?
32°C 50%
31°C 37%
33°C 11%
30°C 8%
BARU
BARU
Aug 20, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
37%
32°C
50%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 50%
31°C 37%
33°C 11%
30°C 8%
BARU
BARU
Aug 20, 2026
26°C or below
$25 Vol.
1%
27°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$24 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$67 Vol.
3%
30°C
$151 Vol.
8%
31°C
$496 Vol.
37%
32°C
$996 Vol.
50%
33°C
$128 Vol.
11%
34°C
$66 Vol.
2%
35°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$297 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure systems dominating southeastern Brazil are driving clear skies, strong solar insolation, and low humidity levels that favor efficient daytime heating in São Paulo, positioning maximum temperatures near 31–32°C as the market consensus for August 20. Ensemble guidance and official INMET outlooks indicate predominantly stable conditions with negligible precipitation risk and light winds, consistent with recent verified highs around 29°C on similar days and modestly above the long-term August climatological average of 23–25°C. Minor model spreads allow limited probability mass on 30°C or 33°C outcomes, while an ongoing broader warming influence from developing El Niño conditions supports the elevated baseline. Updated forecast runs and afternoon observations on the 20th represent the key near-term data points that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 18, 2026, 9:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,294Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 9:55 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure systems dominating southeastern Brazil are driving clear skies, strong solar insolation, and low humidity levels that favor efficient daytime heating in São Paulo, positioning maximum temperatures near 31–32°C as the market consensus for August 20. Ensemble guidance and official INMET outlooks indicate predominantly stable conditions with negligible precipitation risk and light winds, consistent with recent verified highs around 29°C on similar days and modestly above the long-term August climatological average of 23–25°C. Minor model spreads allow limited probability mass on 30°C or 33°C outcomes, while an ongoing broader warming influence from developing El Niño conditions supports the elevated baseline. Updated forecast runs and afternoon observations on the 20th represent the key near-term data points that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,294Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 9:55 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stable high-pressure systems dominating southeastern Brazil are driving clear skies, strong solar insolation, and low humidity levels that favor efficient daytime heating in São Paulo, positioning maximum temperatures near 31–32°C as the market consensus for August 20. Ensemble guidance and official INMET outlooks indicate predominantly stable conditions with negligible precipitation risk and light winds, consistent with recent verified highs around 29°C on similar days and modestly above the long-term August climatological average of 23–25°C. Minor model spreads allow limited probability mass on 30°C or 33°C outcomes, while an ongoing broader warming influence from developing El Niño conditions supports the elevated baseline. Updated forecast runs and afternoon observations on the 20th represent the key near-term data points that could shift implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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