Latest forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a Beijing daily maximum on August 21 in the narrow 33–34°C range, reflecting late-summer subtropical high pressure with modest moisture advection and scattered afternoon convection that can trim peak heating by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty in exact timing of any diurnal thunderstorm development and boundary-layer mixing, which differentiate outcomes between 33°C and 34°C while keeping lower or higher bins at minimal implied probability. Historical August baselines near 31°C underscore how persistent clear-sky conditions this week have elevated expectations, though rapid model updates ahead of the 24-hour verification window could still shift the skin-in-the-game consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Beijing on August 21?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?
33°C 34%
34°C 31%
32°C 16%
35°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
7%
32°C
16%
33°C
34%
34°C
31%
35°C
9%
36°C
4%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 34%
34°C 31%
32°C 16%
35°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
$243 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$39 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$59 Vol.
1%
30°C
$90 Vol.
2%
31°C
$177 Vol.
7%
32°C
$276 Vol.
16%
33°C
$271 Vol.
34%
34°C
$130 Vol.
31%
35°C
$556 Vol.
9%
36°C
$182 Vol.
4%
37°C or higher
$264 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a Beijing daily maximum on August 21 in the narrow 33–34°C range, reflecting late-summer subtropical high pressure with modest moisture advection and scattered afternoon convection that can trim peak heating by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty in exact timing of any diurnal thunderstorm development and boundary-layer mixing, which differentiate outcomes between 33°C and 34°C while keeping lower or higher bins at minimal implied probability. Historical August baselines near 31°C underscore how persistent clear-sky conditions this week have elevated expectations, though rapid model updates ahead of the 24-hour verification window could still shift the skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,286Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a Beijing daily maximum on August 21 in the narrow 33–34°C range, reflecting late-summer subtropical high pressure with modest moisture advection and scattered afternoon convection that can trim peak heating by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty in exact timing of any diurnal thunderstorm development and boundary-layer mixing, which differentiate outcomes between 33°C and 34°C while keeping lower or higher bins at minimal implied probability. Historical August baselines near 31°C underscore how persistent clear-sky conditions this week have elevated expectations, though rapid model updates ahead of the 24-hour verification window could still shift the skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,286Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a Beijing daily maximum on August 21 in the narrow 33–34°C range, reflecting late-summer subtropical high pressure with modest moisture advection and scattered afternoon convection that can trim peak heating by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty in exact timing of any diurnal thunderstorm development and boundary-layer mixing, which differentiate outcomes between 33°C and 34°C while keeping lower or higher bins at minimal implied probability. Historical August baselines near 31°C underscore how persistent clear-sky conditions this week have elevated expectations, though rapid model updates ahead of the 24-hour verification window could still shift the skin-in-the-game consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan