Trader consensus centers on 28–30°C as the likely peak in Tokyo on August 11, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency model guidance for partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers that cap daytime heating near 29°C. The Pacific High extending over Honshu supplies warm, humid air masses, while light southerly flow and modest cloud cover introduce variability that differentiates the narrow 1°C bands. Recent model runs show limited spread, but afternoon convection or slight shifts in steering winds could trim the high to 28°C or allow brief clearing to reach 30°C. Historical August baselines around 30–32°C, combined with above-normal seasonal temperatures, support the tight clustering without strong outliers. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
29°C 33%
28°C 23%
30°C 20%
27°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
10%
28°C
23%
29°C
33%
30°C
20%
31°C
8%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 33%
28°C 23%
30°C 20%
27°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
$632 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$76 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$39 Vol.
1%
26°C
$176 Vol.
4%
27°C
$37 Vol.
10%
28°C
$32 Vol.
23%
29°C
$165 Vol.
33%
30°C
$145 Vol.
20%
31°C
$256 Vol.
8%
32°C
$227 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$132 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 28–30°C as the likely peak in Tokyo on August 11, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency model guidance for partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers that cap daytime heating near 29°C. The Pacific High extending over Honshu supplies warm, humid air masses, while light southerly flow and modest cloud cover introduce variability that differentiates the narrow 1°C bands. Recent model runs show limited spread, but afternoon convection or slight shifts in steering winds could trim the high to 28°C or allow brief clearing to reach 30°C. Historical August baselines around 30–32°C, combined with above-normal seasonal temperatures, support the tight clustering without strong outliers. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$1,917Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 28–30°C as the likely peak in Tokyo on August 11, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency model guidance for partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers that cap daytime heating near 29°C. The Pacific High extending over Honshu supplies warm, humid air masses, while light southerly flow and modest cloud cover introduce variability that differentiates the narrow 1°C bands. Recent model runs show limited spread, but afternoon convection or slight shifts in steering winds could trim the high to 28°C or allow brief clearing to reach 30°C. Historical August baselines around 30–32°C, combined with above-normal seasonal temperatures, support the tight clustering without strong outliers. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,917Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on 28–30°C as the likely peak in Tokyo on August 11, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency model guidance for partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers that cap daytime heating near 29°C. The Pacific High extending over Honshu supplies warm, humid air masses, while light southerly flow and modest cloud cover introduce variability that differentiates the narrow 1°C bands. Recent model runs show limited spread, but afternoon convection or slight shifts in steering winds could trim the high to 28°C or allow brief clearing to reach 30°C. Historical August baselines around 30–32°C, combined with above-normal seasonal temperatures, support the tight clustering without strong outliers. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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