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Ekonomi·Tarif Fed

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?

icon for How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
Ekonomi·Tarif Fed

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?

BARU
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

4.90%

$0 Vol.

38%

4.83%

$0 Vol.

38%

4.78%

$0 Vol.

50%

4.73%

$0 Vol.

50%

4.70%

$0 Vol.

51%

4.67%

$0 Vol.

51%

4.64%

$0 Vol.

51%

4.61%

$0 Vol.

51%

4.58%

$0 Vol.

62%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials have driven expectations for a potential 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, with futures pricing roughly 60-67% odds of tightening. This shift, alongside geopolitical tensions elevating oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns, has pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to around 4.53% as of September 2, near multi-month highs. Persistent fiscal pressures from federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy corporate bond issuance for AI-related investments have also lifted term premiums, supporting higher real yields despite somewhat softer recent employment data. Key upcoming releases, including the September 4 jobs report and CPI on September 11, could further influence medium-term policy expectations and yield volatility through month-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials have driven expectations for a potential 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, with futures pricing roughly 60-67% odds of tightening. This shift, alongside geopolitical tensions elevating oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns, has pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to around 4.53% as of September 2, near multi-month highs. Persistent fiscal pressures from federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy corporate bond issuance for AI-related investments have also lifted term premiums, supporting higher real yields despite somewhat softer recent employment data. Key upcoming releases, including the September 4 jobs report and CPI on September 11, could further influence medium-term policy expectations and yield volatility through month-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "4.58%" di 62%, diikuti oleh "4.70%" di 51%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 62¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 62% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Sep 2, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?" adalah "4.58%" di 62%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 62% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "4.70%" di 51%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.