Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including U.S. strikes on Iran, have lifted oil prices above $90 per barrel, stoking inflation concerns and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to intraday highs near 4.82% early in September 2026 before easing to around 4.77%. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on the 2% inflation target with no soft landing implied, have reinforced expectations of a possible 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with markets assigning roughly 60% odds. Sticky inflation readings near 3.4% and a resilient labor market add upward pressure on yields, while elevated fiscal deficits and Treasury supply contribute to the sell-off. Key near-term catalysts include the August employment report and CPI data, which could shift rate expectations and yield trajectories.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
Sep 30, 2026
5.10%
6%
5.05%
50%
5.00%
50%
4.97%
50%
4.94%
50%
4.91%
51%
4.88%
51%
4.85%
51%
4.82%
51%
$0.00 Vol.
5.10%
$0 Vol.
6%
5.05%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.00%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.97%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.94%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.91%
$0 Vol.
51%
4.88%
$0 Vol.
51%
4.85%
$0 Vol.
51%
4.82%
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including U.S. strikes on Iran, have lifted oil prices above $90 per barrel, stoking inflation concerns and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to intraday highs near 4.82% early in September 2026 before easing to around 4.77%. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on the 2% inflation target with no soft landing implied, have reinforced expectations of a possible 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with markets assigning roughly 60% odds. Sticky inflation readings near 3.4% and a resilient labor market add upward pressure on yields, while elevated fiscal deficits and Treasury supply contribute to the sell-off. Key near-term catalysts include the August employment report and CPI data, which could shift rate expectations and yield trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including U.S. strikes on Iran, have lifted oil prices above $90 per barrel, stoking inflation concerns and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to intraday highs near 4.82% early in September 2026 before easing to around 4.77%. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on the 2% inflation target with no soft landing implied, have reinforced expectations of a possible 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with markets assigning roughly 60% odds. Sticky inflation readings near 3.4% and a resilient labor market add upward pressure on yields, while elevated fiscal deficits and Treasury supply contribute to the sell-off. Key near-term catalysts include the August employment report and CPI data, which could shift rate expectations and yield trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including U.S. strikes on Iran, have lifted oil prices above $90 per barrel, stoking inflation concerns and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to intraday highs near 4.82% early in September 2026 before easing to around 4.77%. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on the 2% inflation target with no soft landing implied, have reinforced expectations of a possible 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with markets assigning roughly 60% odds. Sticky inflation readings near 3.4% and a resilient labor market add upward pressure on yields, while elevated fiscal deficits and Treasury supply contribute to the sell-off. Key near-term catalysts include the August employment report and CPI data, which could shift rate expectations and yield trajectories.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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