Skip to main content

Untuk trading di AS, kunjungi polymarket.us

icon for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
Ekonomi·Tarif Fed

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

icon for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
Ekonomi·Tarif Fed

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

Sep 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Sep 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

BARU
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

Below 4.76%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 4.73%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 4.70%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 4.67%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 4.64%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 4.61%

$0 Vol.

49%

Below 4.56%

$0 Vol.

49%

Below 4.51%

$0 Vol.

49%

Below 4.45%

$0 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.79% after touching multi-year highs above 4.81% in early September 2026, reflects persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish policy outlook. Headline PCE inflation reached 4.1% year-over-year through May amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, while core measures remained around 3.4%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, with officials signaling openness to hikes if inflation fails to moderate. Rising term premiums, driven by record Treasury issuance amid federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, have further supported yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment data plus FOMC communications that could shift expectations for monetary policy tightening.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.79% after touching multi-year highs above 4.81% in early September 2026, reflects persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish policy outlook. Headline PCE inflation reached 4.1% year-over-year through May amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, while core measures remained around 3.4%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, with officials signaling openness to hikes if inflation fails to moderate. Rising term premiums, driven by record Treasury issuance amid federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, have further supported yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment data plus FOMC communications that could shift expectations for monetary policy tightening.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Terkait

icon for Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.82% in September?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.82% in September?

51%
icon for Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.24% in September?

Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.24% in September?

62%
icon for Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.43% in September?

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.43% in September?

51%

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Below 4.76%" di 50%, diikuti oleh "Below 4.73%" di 50%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 50¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 50% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Sep 2, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?" adalah "Below 4.76%" di 50%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 50% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Below 4.73%" di 50%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.