The 97% market-implied probability for exactly three magnitude 6.5+ events reflects USGS catalog data showing one confirmed 7.4 earthquake on August 10 near San José del Palmar, Colombia, plus two additional qualifying events in the August 10–16 window, consistent with observed clustering along active subduction zones. Recent model runs and aftershock sequences indicate limited potential for further large events before the period closes, aligning with historical weekly averages of roughly 0.3–0.4 such quakes globally while accounting for short-term variability in seismic release rates. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unexpected aftershock sequence exceeding 6.5 or a new independent rupture in a high-strain region like the Philippines or Indonesia before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
3 97.8%
4 2.5%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$35,174 Vol.
$35,174 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
<1%
3
98%
4
2%
5
1%
>5
1%
3 97.8%
4 2.5%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$35,174 Vol.
$35,174 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
$11,993 Vol.
<1%
1
$6,814 Vol.
<1%
2
$6,885 Vol.
<1%
3
$4,627 Vol.
98%
4
$1,105 Vol.
2%
5
$1,025 Vol.
1%
>5
$2,726 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 97% market-implied probability for exactly three magnitude 6.5+ events reflects USGS catalog data showing one confirmed 7.4 earthquake on August 10 near San José del Palmar, Colombia, plus two additional qualifying events in the August 10–16 window, consistent with observed clustering along active subduction zones. Recent model runs and aftershock sequences indicate limited potential for further large events before the period closes, aligning with historical weekly averages of roughly 0.3–0.4 such quakes globally while accounting for short-term variability in seismic release rates. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unexpected aftershock sequence exceeding 6.5 or a new independent rupture in a high-strain region like the Philippines or Indonesia before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Volume
$35,174Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 97% market-implied probability for exactly three magnitude 6.5+ events reflects USGS catalog data showing one confirmed 7.4 earthquake on August 10 near San José del Palmar, Colombia, plus two additional qualifying events in the August 10–16 window, consistent with observed clustering along active subduction zones. Recent model runs and aftershock sequences indicate limited potential for further large events before the period closes, aligning with historical weekly averages of roughly 0.3–0.4 such quakes globally while accounting for short-term variability in seismic release rates. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unexpected aftershock sequence exceeding 6.5 or a new independent rupture in a high-strain region like the Philippines or Indonesia before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$35,174Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The 97% market-implied probability for exactly three magnitude 6.5+ events reflects USGS catalog data showing one confirmed 7.4 earthquake on August 10 near San José del Palmar, Colombia, plus two additional qualifying events in the August 10–16 window, consistent with observed clustering along active subduction zones. Recent model runs and aftershock sequences indicate limited potential for further large events before the period closes, aligning with historical weekly averages of roughly 0.3–0.4 such quakes globally while accounting for short-term variability in seismic release rates. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unexpected aftershock sequence exceeding 6.5 or a new independent rupture in a high-strain region like the Philippines or Indonesia before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
43%
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
100%
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
21%
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan