Market-implied odds currently assign a 70.5% probability to zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026, reflecting traders' assessment that the Federal Reserve will maintain its 3.50β3.75% target range through year-end. This pricing stems from elevated inflation pressures tied to higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market that added 115,000 jobs in Aprilβexceeding expectationsβwith unemployment steady at 4.3%. Recent FOMC communications and revised forecasts from major brokerages, including BofA's shift to cuts no earlier than 2027, reinforce a higher-for-longer policy stance. With core PCE remaining above target and the next FOMC meeting in June, markets see limited room for easing absent significant labor-market softening.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· Diperbarui0 (0 bps)Β 70.5%
1 (25 bps)Β 16%
2 (50 bps)Β 7%
3 (75 bps)Β 2.7%
$26,886,660 Vol.
$26,886,660 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
71%
1 (25 bps)
16%
2 (50 bps)
7%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
2%
5 (125 bps)
1%
6 (150 bps)
1%
7 (175 bps)
<1%
8 (200 bps)
<1%
9 (225 bps)
<1%
10 (250 bps)
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps)Β 70.5%
1 (25 bps)Β 16%
2 (50 bps)Β 7%
3 (75 bps)Β 2.7%
$26,886,660 Vol.
$26,886,660 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$4,187,604 Vol.
71%
1 (25 bps)
$1,244,767 Vol.
16%
2 (50 bps)
$1,204,227 Vol.
7%
3 (75 bps)
$1,113,762 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$1,195,198 Vol.
2%
5 (125 bps)
$1,416,356 Vol.
1%
6 (150 bps)
$2,485,409 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$1,322,160 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 bps)
$1,728,046 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 bps)
$2,451,247 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 bps)
$3,119,738 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,267,089 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,152,344 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds currently assign a 70.5% probability to zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026, reflecting traders' assessment that the Federal Reserve will maintain its 3.50β3.75% target range through year-end. This pricing stems from elevated inflation pressures tied to higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market that added 115,000 jobs in Aprilβexceeding expectationsβwith unemployment steady at 4.3%. Recent FOMC communications and revised forecasts from major brokerages, including BofA's shift to cuts no earlier than 2027, reinforce a higher-for-longer policy stance. With core PCE remaining above target and the next FOMC meeting in June, markets see limited room for easing absent significant labor-market softening.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$26,886,660Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds currently assign a 70.5% probability to zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026, reflecting traders' assessment that the Federal Reserve will maintain its 3.50β3.75% target range through year-end. This pricing stems from elevated inflation pressures tied to higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market that added 115,000 jobs in Aprilβexceeding expectationsβwith unemployment steady at 4.3%. Recent FOMC communications and revised forecasts from major brokerages, including BofA's shift to cuts no earlier than 2027, reinforce a higher-for-longer policy stance. With core PCE remaining above target and the next FOMC meeting in June, markets see limited room for easing absent significant labor-market softening.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,886,660Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds currently assign a 70.5% probability to zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026, reflecting traders' assessment that the Federal Reserve will maintain its 3.50β3.75% target range through year-end. This pricing stems from elevated inflation pressures tied to higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market that added 115,000 jobs in Aprilβexceeding expectationsβwith unemployment steady at 4.3%. Recent FOMC communications and revised forecasts from major brokerages, including BofA's shift to cuts no earlier than 2027, reinforce a higher-for-longer policy stance. With core PCE remaining above target and the next FOMC meeting in June, markets see limited room for easing absent significant labor-market softening.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· Diperbarui
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