Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and elevated energy prices have driven the market-implied 70.3% probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and reinforcing the FOMCβs April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%β3.75%. Strong labor market conditions and internal policy divisions, including the highest dissent count in decades, have further anchored trader consensus around a pause. Recent analyst revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing first cuts into late 2026 or 2027 align with these dynamics, while upcoming May and June inflation releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· Diperbarui0 (0 bps)Β 70.2%
1 (25 bps)Β 16%
2 (50 bps)Β 7%
3 (75 bps)Β 2.6%
$26,955,917 Vol.
$26,955,917 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
70%
1 (25 bps)
16%
2 (50 bps)
7%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5 (125 bps)
1%
6 (150 bps)
1%
7 (175 bps)
<1%
8 (200 bps)
<1%
9 (225 bps)
<1%
10 (250 bps)
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps)Β 70.2%
1 (25 bps)Β 16%
2 (50 bps)Β 7%
3 (75 bps)Β 2.6%
$26,955,917 Vol.
$26,955,917 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$4,189,277 Vol.
70%
1 (25 bps)
$1,245,194 Vol.
16%
2 (50 bps)
$1,204,668 Vol.
7%
3 (75 bps)
$1,114,221 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$1,197,260 Vol.
1%
5 (125 bps)
$1,419,171 Vol.
1%
6 (150 bps)
$2,495,936 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$1,326,081 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 bps)
$1,736,298 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 bps)
$2,456,957 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 bps)
$3,125,778 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,276,964 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,168,288 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and elevated energy prices have driven the market-implied 70.3% probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and reinforcing the FOMCβs April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%β3.75%. Strong labor market conditions and internal policy divisions, including the highest dissent count in decades, have further anchored trader consensus around a pause. Recent analyst revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing first cuts into late 2026 or 2027 align with these dynamics, while upcoming May and June inflation releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$26,955,917Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and elevated energy prices have driven the market-implied 70.3% probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and reinforcing the FOMCβs April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%β3.75%. Strong labor market conditions and internal policy divisions, including the highest dissent count in decades, have further anchored trader consensus around a pause. Recent analyst revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing first cuts into late 2026 or 2027 align with these dynamics, while upcoming May and June inflation releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible β i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1β24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,955,917Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and elevated energy prices have driven the market-implied 70.3% probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and reinforcing the FOMCβs April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%β3.75%. Strong labor market conditions and internal policy divisions, including the highest dissent count in decades, have further anchored trader consensus around a pause. Recent analyst revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing first cuts into late 2026 or 2027 align with these dynamics, while upcoming May and June inflation releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· Diperbarui
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