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Geopolitik·Immigration

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

icon for How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Geopolitik·Immigration

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

400-500k 64%

300-400k 18%

500-600k 9.3%

>1m 3.2%

Polymarket

$122,674 Vol.

400-500k 64%

300-400k 18%

500-600k 9.3%

>1m 3.2%

Polymarket

$122,674 Vol.

<200k

$10,181 Vol.

2%

200-300k

$9,657 Vol.

<1%

300-400k

$14,906 Vol.

18%

400-500k

$7,727 Vol.

61%

500-600k

$6,316 Vol.

9%

600-700k

$5,645 Vol.

2%

700-800k

$41,851 Vol.

1%

800-900k

$12,769 Vol.

2%

900k-1m

$6,542 Vol.

1%

>1m

$7,081 Vol.

3%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trump’s second-term enforcement push has produced several hundred thousand formal removals annually, with ICE reporting over 350,000 in fiscal year 2026 through mid-summer amid doubled interior arrests and expanded detention capacity funded by recent congressional appropriations. Administration goals of one million annual deportations face persistent logistical, legal, and resource constraints, including court backlogs, fluctuating arrest volumes, and a shift toward prioritizing criminal noncitizens after border encounters fell sharply. These factors have anchored trader consensus around the 400-500k range for calendar-year 2026, reflecting observed throughput rather than stated targets, while lower and higher brackets price in risks from policy adjustments or capacity expansions.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$122,674
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trump’s second-term enforcement push has produced several hundred thousand formal removals annually, with ICE reporting over 350,000 in fiscal year 2026 through mid-summer amid doubled interior arrests and expanded detention capacity funded by recent congressional appropriations. Administration goals of one million annual deportations face persistent logistical, legal, and resource constraints, including court backlogs, fluctuating arrest volumes, and a shift toward prioritizing criminal noncitizens after border encounters fell sharply. These factors have anchored trader consensus around the 400-500k range for calendar-year 2026, reflecting observed throughput rather than stated targets, while lower and higher brackets price in risks from policy adjustments or capacity expansions.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$122,674
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 10 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "400-500k" di 61%, diikuti oleh "300-400k" di 18%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 61¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 61% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" telah menghasilkan $122.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?," jelajahi 10 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" adalah "400-500k" di 61%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 61% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "300-400k" di 18%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.