The closely matched trader consensus around 300,000–500,000 deportations in 2026 stems from the Trump administration’s sustained interior enforcement push, which lifted ICE removals in fiscal 2025 to roughly 443,000 and maintained elevated daily arrest rates into early 2026. Expanded detention capacity and voluntary departure surges have accelerated case resolutions without requiring full-scale hearings, yet court backlogs, resource limits, and a continued focus on criminal priorities have kept overall removal volumes below the administration’s million-per-year target. Congressional funding debates and any mid-year policy shifts on worksite enforcement or expedited proceedings could widen the gap between the two leading brackets by altering operational throughput for the remainder of the calendar year.