Heightened security risks from Houthi attacks and the group's July 2026 maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia remain the dominant driver pushing Polymarket odds toward lower weekly transit volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Recent data show traffic stabilizing well below historical norms at roughly 32 ships per day following a 24% initial decline, with a fresh missile strike on August 11 that killed six further deterring operators. Shipowners continue favoring longer Cape of Good Hope routings to avoid elevated war-risk premiums and potential seizures, compressing volumes into the sub-200 range and elevating the <160 outcome to a 37% implied probability. Broader supply-chain effects, including elevated freight rates and delayed cargo flows, reinforce trader expectations that persistent geopolitical tensions will keep activity subdued through the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
<160 43%
160-179 26%
180-199 24%
200+ 16%
BARU
BARU
Aug 23, 2026
<160
34%
160-179
26%
180-199
24%
200+
16%
<160 43%
160-179 26%
180-199 24%
200+ 16%
BARU
BARU
Aug 23, 2026
<160
$3,453 Vol.
34%
160-179
$1,717 Vol.
26%
180-199
$1,453 Vol.
24%
200+
$1,292 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened security risks from Houthi attacks and the group's July 2026 maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia remain the dominant driver pushing Polymarket odds toward lower weekly transit volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Recent data show traffic stabilizing well below historical norms at roughly 32 ships per day following a 24% initial decline, with a fresh missile strike on August 11 that killed six further deterring operators. Shipowners continue favoring longer Cape of Good Hope routings to avoid elevated war-risk premiums and potential seizures, compressing volumes into the sub-200 range and elevating the <160 outcome to a 37% implied probability. Broader supply-chain effects, including elevated freight rates and delayed cargo flows, reinforce trader expectations that persistent geopolitical tensions will keep activity subdued through the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$7,915Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened security risks from Houthi attacks and the group's July 2026 maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia remain the dominant driver pushing Polymarket odds toward lower weekly transit volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Recent data show traffic stabilizing well below historical norms at roughly 32 ships per day following a 24% initial decline, with a fresh missile strike on August 11 that killed six further deterring operators. Shipowners continue favoring longer Cape of Good Hope routings to avoid elevated war-risk premiums and potential seizures, compressing volumes into the sub-200 range and elevating the <160 outcome to a 37% implied probability. Broader supply-chain effects, including elevated freight rates and delayed cargo flows, reinforce trader expectations that persistent geopolitical tensions will keep activity subdued through the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$7,915Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Heightened security risks from Houthi attacks and the group's July 2026 maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia remain the dominant driver pushing Polymarket odds toward lower weekly transit volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Recent data show traffic stabilizing well below historical norms at roughly 32 ships per day following a 24% initial decline, with a fresh missile strike on August 11 that killed six further deterring operators. Shipowners continue favoring longer Cape of Good Hope routings to avoid elevated war-risk premiums and potential seizures, compressing volumes into the sub-200 range and elevating the <160 outcome to a 37% implied probability. Broader supply-chain effects, including elevated freight rates and delayed cargo flows, reinforce trader expectations that persistent geopolitical tensions will keep activity subdued through the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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