Hu Jintao, now 83, has recorded no confirmed public appearances since December 2022, when he attended Jiang Zemin’s funeral procession. Subsequent major events, including the September 2025 military parade and various senior-leader commemorations, have featured other retired elders but not Hu, with state media and observers citing health considerations. Mid-2026 reports of further deterioration, combined with sustained official silence and his advanced age, have driven trader consensus toward “No” at 95.3 percent, reflecting the consistent pattern of minimal visibility for retired paramount leaders in poor health. With roughly three months remaining until the December 31 cutoff and no scheduled public ceremonies that would require his presence, only an abrupt improvement or an unexpected high-profile political ritual could still produce a verifiable image or broadcast.