Recent polling aggregates show Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc—Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism-Zehut, and aligned lists—averaging 53–55 Knesset seats, a narrow edge over the main opposition Zionist parties at roughly 48–52 seats. This positioning underpins the 57.5% implied probability for the Netanyahu-aligned bloc winning more seats on October 27. The gap has narrowed from earlier opposition leads as Likud gained ground in October surveys while opposition parties such as Yashar and B’Yachad held or slipped slightly. Ongoing debates over Haredi military exemptions, security assessments three years after October 7, and bloc coordination efforts have kept both sides below the 61-seat majority threshold, leaving Arab parties as potential kingmakers but outside either Zionist bloc count. Traders appear to weigh the consistent, if modest, Netanyahu-bloc polling advantage in the final weeks.