**Traders assign a 72.4% probability to fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (via his official account) during October 2–9, 2026, with 5–9 posts at 15.6% and all higher bins under 1%.** This positioning reflects his established pattern of infrequent personal social-media activity since assuming the role of Supreme Leader in March 2026. Following the February 2026 strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei has maintained a low public profile for security reasons amid ongoing regional conflict. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly affirmed his health and ability to govern through private meetings, with the most recent statements on October 8 confirming no specific ongoing medical issues. The resolution window overlaps the October 7 anniversary of Al-Aqsa Flood, which has historically prompted official messaging, yet accounts tied to the leadership have continued to recirculate prior statements rather than issue high volumes of new content. No major new diplomatic, military, or domestic developments in the immediate prior week have generated expectations of elevated output. Historical base rates for the account show sporadic posting tied to key events or messages, supporting the market’s assessment that the period will feature limited activity unless a significant escalation or official directive intervenes before October 9.