This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim 58% implied probability over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein at 43% in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by a late Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 showing Gallrein ahead 53-45 among likely votersβMassie leads younger cohorts while Gallrein dominates seniorsβyet bettors favor Massie's incumbency advantage, $2.5 million Q1 small-donor haul, and local name recognition despite record $25 million in ads, much from outside groups like United Democracy Project targeting his independent votes against spending bills. Trump's April endorsement and national GOP pressure have narrowed the gap from Massie's earlier polling leads, testing party loyalty in this battleground primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim 58% implied probability over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein at 43% in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by a late Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 showing Gallrein ahead 53-45 among likely votersβMassie leads younger cohorts while Gallrein dominates seniorsβyet bettors favor Massie's incumbency advantage, $2.5 million Q1 small-donor haul, and local name recognition despite record $25 million in ads, much from outside groups like United Democracy Project targeting his independent votes against spending bills. Trump's April endorsement and national GOP pressure have narrowed the gap from Massie's earlier polling leads, testing party loyalty in this battleground primary.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· Diperbarui
May 13 2026
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallreinβs cashβonβhand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallreinβs cashβonβhand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the primary and supporting the latest
May 11 2026
The Kentucky GOP primary becomes the most expensive U.S.
Thomas Massie plunges to 62%16%
House primary ever, with over $25.6 million in ad spending, most of it by Gallreinβs campaign
May 7 2026
CourierβJournal analysis links Trumpβs Indiana primary upsets to Gallreinβs momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trumpβs endorsement remains βextraordinary value,β
Ed Gallrein surges to 44%21%
CourierβJournal analysis links Trumpβs Indiana primary upsets to Gallreinβs momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trumpβs endorsement remains βextraordinary value,β which coincides with a sharp
May 5 2026
WKYUβFM reports AIβdeepβfake attack ads from opposing superβPACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallreinβfocused ad portraying him as a βcoward,β sparking controversy and a
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%9%
WKYUβFM reports AIβdeepβfake attack ads from opposing superβPACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallreinβfocused ad portraying him as a βcoward,β sparking controversy and a brief
May 5 2026
WKYU FM reports AI βdeepβfakeβ attack ads targeting both candidates;
Edβ―Gallrein drops to 23%7%
the Gallreinβfocused ad draws criticism and likely depresses his odds further
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5βpoint surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengersβincluding Robert Wells Jr.βdown to 28 cents,
Robert Wells Jr. dips to 0%1%
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5βpoint surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengersβincluding Robert Wells Jr.βdown to 28 cents, reflecting a sharp sellβoff on Wellsβs odds
Feb 24 2026
Report on βwhoβs behind the millionsβ reveals outβofβstate billionaire donors and proβIsrael PACs pouring over $1 million into antiβMassie ads, signalling a spending surge for
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report on βwhoβs behind the millionsβ reveals outβofβstate billionaire donors and proβIsrael PACs pouring over $1 million into antiβMassie ads, signalling a spending surge for Gallreinβs side and lifting his odds
Jan 6 2026
President Trump publicly endorses Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, a primary rival, and attacks Rep.
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 1%2%
Thomas Massie, drawing attention away from Ethington and boosting Gallreinβs fundraising
Jun 15 2025
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorses incumbent Rep.
Robert Wells Jr. drops to 1%13%
Thomas Massie and calls for a primary challenge against him, signaling strong establishment support for Massie over lesserβknown challengers like Wells
Jan 9 2025
Kentucky Secretary of State confirms Robert Wells Jr.
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 3%43%
files paperwork to run for the KYβ04 Republican nomination
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim 58% implied probability over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein at 43% in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by a late Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 showing Gallrein ahead 53-45 among likely votersβMassie leads younger cohorts while Gallrein dominates seniorsβyet bettors favor Massie's incumbency advantage, $2.5 million Q1 small-donor haul, and local name recognition despite record $25 million in ads, much from outside groups like United Democracy Project targeting his independent votes against spending bills. Trump's April endorsement and national GOP pressure have narrowed the gap from Massie's earlier polling leads, testing party loyalty in this battleground primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim 58% implied probability over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein at 43% in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by a late Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 showing Gallrein ahead 53-45 among likely votersβMassie leads younger cohorts while Gallrein dominates seniorsβyet bettors favor Massie's incumbency advantage, $2.5 million Q1 small-donor haul, and local name recognition despite record $25 million in ads, much from outside groups like United Democracy Project targeting his independent votes against spending bills. Trump's April endorsement and national GOP pressure have narrowed the gap from Massie's earlier polling leads, testing party loyalty in this battleground primary.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· Diperbarui
May 13 2026
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallreinβs cashβonβhand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallreinβs cashβonβhand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the primary and supporting the latest
May 11 2026
The Kentucky GOP primary becomes the most expensive U.S.
Thomas Massie plunges to 62%16%
House primary ever, with over $25.6 million in ad spending, most of it by Gallreinβs campaign
May 7 2026
CourierβJournal analysis links Trumpβs Indiana primary upsets to Gallreinβs momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trumpβs endorsement remains βextraordinary value,β
Ed Gallrein surges to 44%21%
CourierβJournal analysis links Trumpβs Indiana primary upsets to Gallreinβs momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trumpβs endorsement remains βextraordinary value,β which coincides with a sharp
May 5 2026
WKYUβFM reports AIβdeepβfake attack ads from opposing superβPACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallreinβfocused ad portraying him as a βcoward,β sparking controversy and a
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%9%
WKYUβFM reports AIβdeepβfake attack ads from opposing superβPACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallreinβfocused ad portraying him as a βcoward,β sparking controversy and a brief
May 5 2026
WKYU FM reports AI βdeepβfakeβ attack ads targeting both candidates;
Edβ―Gallrein drops to 23%7%
the Gallreinβfocused ad draws criticism and likely depresses his odds further
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5βpoint surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengersβincluding Robert Wells Jr.βdown to 28 cents,
Robert Wells Jr. dips to 0%1%
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5βpoint surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengersβincluding Robert Wells Jr.βdown to 28 cents, reflecting a sharp sellβoff on Wellsβs odds
Feb 24 2026
Report on βwhoβs behind the millionsβ reveals outβofβstate billionaire donors and proβIsrael PACs pouring over $1 million into antiβMassie ads, signalling a spending surge for
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report on βwhoβs behind the millionsβ reveals outβofβstate billionaire donors and proβIsrael PACs pouring over $1 million into antiβMassie ads, signalling a spending surge for Gallreinβs side and lifting his odds
Jan 6 2026
President Trump publicly endorses Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, a primary rival, and attacks Rep.
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 1%2%
Thomas Massie, drawing attention away from Ethington and boosting Gallreinβs fundraising
Jun 15 2025
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorses incumbent Rep.
Robert Wells Jr. drops to 1%13%
Thomas Massie and calls for a primary challenge against him, signaling strong establishment support for Massie over lesserβknown challengers like Wells
Jan 9 2025
Kentucky Secretary of State confirms Robert Wells Jr.
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 3%43%
files paperwork to run for the KYβ04 Republican nomination
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan
"KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 4 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Thomas Massie" di 59%, diikuti oleh "Ed Gallrein" di 43%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 59Β’ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 59% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" telah menghasilkan $967.3K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 1, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner," jelajahi 4 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Unggulan saat ini untuk "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" adalah "Thomas Massie" di 59%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 59% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Ed Gallrein" di 43%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.
Aturan resolusi untuk "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang β termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $967.3K diperdagangkan pada "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta β sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 59Β’ untuk "Thomas Massie" di pasar "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 59% bahwa "Thomas Massie" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 59Β’ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham β keuntungan 41Β’ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Pasar "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" dijadwalkan diselesaikan pada atau sekitar May 19, 2026. Ini berarti trading akan tetap terbuka dan peluang akan terus bergeser saat informasi baru muncul sampai tanggal tersebut. Waktu resolusi tepat tergantung pada kapan hasil resmi tersedia, seperti diuraikan di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini.
Pasar "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" memiliki komunitas aktif dengan 70 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan