**The Democratic Party of Korea’s commanding National Assembly majority makes impeachment of President Lee Jae-myung before the end of 2026 structurally improbable.** The party controls roughly 161 of 300 seats, far short of the two-thirds (200 votes) required for passage, and recent opposition petitions have failed to advance despite collecting over 100,000 signatures. Approval ratings have declined into the high 30s to mid-40s amid economic and housing concerns, yet this has not produced the cross-party defections or internal revolt needed to reach the constitutional threshold. Party leaders have publicly dismissed impeachment risks, and Lee’s June 2025 inauguration followed a prior successful removal process that reinforced institutional norms without altering the current legislative balance. Traders price the outcome at 93.9% “No” because the required supermajority remains out of reach absent a major realignment before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
6% peluang
$21,783 Vol.
$21,783 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% peluang
$21,783 Vol.
$21,783 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**The Democratic Party of Korea’s commanding National Assembly majority makes impeachment of President Lee Jae-myung before the end of 2026 structurally improbable.** The party controls roughly 161 of 300 seats, far short of the two-thirds (200 votes) required for passage, and recent opposition petitions have failed to advance despite collecting over 100,000 signatures. Approval ratings have declined into the high 30s to mid-40s amid economic and housing concerns, yet this has not produced the cross-party defections or internal revolt needed to reach the constitutional threshold. Party leaders have publicly dismissed impeachment risks, and Lee’s June 2025 inauguration followed a prior successful removal process that reinforced institutional norms without altering the current legislative balance. Traders price the outcome at 93.9% “No” because the required supermajority remains out of reach absent a major realignment before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$21,783Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**The Democratic Party of Korea’s commanding National Assembly majority makes impeachment of President Lee Jae-myung before the end of 2026 structurally improbable.** The party controls roughly 161 of 300 seats, far short of the two-thirds (200 votes) required for passage, and recent opposition petitions have failed to advance despite collecting over 100,000 signatures. Approval ratings have declined into the high 30s to mid-40s amid economic and housing concerns, yet this has not produced the cross-party defections or internal revolt needed to reach the constitutional threshold. Party leaders have publicly dismissed impeachment risks, and Lee’s June 2025 inauguration followed a prior successful removal process that reinforced institutional norms without altering the current legislative balance. Traders price the outcome at 93.9% “No” because the required supermajority remains out of reach absent a major realignment before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$21,783Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The Democratic Party of Korea’s commanding National Assembly majority makes impeachment of President Lee Jae-myung before the end of 2026 structurally improbable.** The party controls roughly 161 of 300 seats, far short of the two-thirds (200 votes) required for passage, and recent opposition petitions have failed to advance despite collecting over 100,000 signatures. Approval ratings have declined into the high 30s to mid-40s amid economic and housing concerns, yet this has not produced the cross-party defections or internal revolt needed to reach the constitutional threshold. Party leaders have publicly dismissed impeachment risks, and Lee’s June 2025 inauguration followed a prior successful removal process that reinforced institutional norms without altering the current legislative balance. Traders price the outcome at 93.9% “No” because the required supermajority remains out of reach absent a major realignment before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
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