**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Wellington on September 4, 2026, reflects a tight cluster of probabilities around 9–14°C (all near 43.5% implied odds) because current forecast guidance shows substantial overlap in the expected overnight minimum.** Strong northwesterly winds associated with a persistent synoptic pattern are the dominant factor, with models indicating 20–30+ mph (roughly 9–13 m/s or higher) gusts through the period. These winds enhance mixing in the boundary layer, limiting radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures from dropping sharply. Forecasts converge on daytime highs near 14–16°C (57–61°F) with showers or rain likely (60–80% chance) under mostly cloudy skies, followed by partial clearing overnight. This setup produces a plausible minimum range of roughly 9–12°C (48–54°F), consistent with climatological norms for early September in Wellington, where marine influence and wind exposure typically moderate extremes. The spread across 9–14°C outcomes stems from uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed overnight, and cloud cover—variables that directly control how much the surface layer can cool. Lower-probability tails (7°C or below at 34.5%, 15°C+ at lower odds) would require either stronger-than-expected radiational cooling under clear, lighter winds or a delayed frontal passage keeping temperatures elevated. Ensemble model runs and official guidance from agencies like MetService continue to show this narrow band, driving the balanced market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
9°C 96%
10°C 96%
11°C 96%
12°C 96%
BARU
BARU
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
69%
8°C
21%
9°C
96%
10°C
96%
11°C
96%
12°C
96%
13°C
96%
14°C
96%
15°C
8%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
69%
9°C 96%
10°C 96%
11°C 96%
12°C 96%
BARU
BARU
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
8°C
$0 Vol.
21%
9°C
$0 Vol.
96%
10°C
$0 Vol.
96%
11°C
$0 Vol.
96%
12°C
$0 Vol.
96%
13°C
$0 Vol.
96%
14°C
$0 Vol.
96%
15°C
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Wellington on September 4, 2026, reflects a tight cluster of probabilities around 9–14°C (all near 43.5% implied odds) because current forecast guidance shows substantial overlap in the expected overnight minimum.**
Strong northwesterly winds associated with a persistent synoptic pattern are the dominant factor, with models indicating 20–30+ mph (roughly 9–13 m/s or higher) gusts through the period. These winds enhance mixing in the boundary layer, limiting radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures from dropping sharply.
Forecasts converge on daytime highs near 14–16°C (57–61°F) with showers or rain likely (60–80% chance) under mostly cloudy skies, followed by partial clearing overnight. This setup produces a plausible minimum range of roughly 9–12°C (48–54°F), consistent with climatological norms for early September in Wellington, where marine influence and wind exposure typically moderate extremes.
The spread across 9–14°C outcomes stems from uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed overnight, and cloud cover—variables that directly control how much the surface layer can cool. Lower-probability tails (7°C or below at 34.5%, 15°C+ at lower odds) would require either stronger-than-expected radiational cooling under clear, lighter winds or a delayed frontal passage keeping temperatures elevated. Ensemble model runs and official guidance from agencies like MetService continue to show this narrow band, driving the balanced market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Wellington on September 4, 2026, reflects a tight cluster of probabilities around 9–14°C (all near 43.5% implied odds) because current forecast guidance shows substantial overlap in the expected overnight minimum.**
Strong northwesterly winds associated with a persistent synoptic pattern are the dominant factor, with models indicating 20–30+ mph (roughly 9–13 m/s or higher) gusts through the period. These winds enhance mixing in the boundary layer, limiting radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures from dropping sharply.
Forecasts converge on daytime highs near 14–16°C (57–61°F) with showers or rain likely (60–80% chance) under mostly cloudy skies, followed by partial clearing overnight. This setup produces a plausible minimum range of roughly 9–12°C (48–54°F), consistent with climatological norms for early September in Wellington, where marine influence and wind exposure typically moderate extremes.
The spread across 9–14°C outcomes stems from uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed overnight, and cloud cover—variables that directly control how much the surface layer can cool. Lower-probability tails (7°C or below at 34.5%, 15°C+ at lower odds) would require either stronger-than-expected radiational cooling under clear, lighter winds or a delayed frontal passage keeping temperatures elevated. Ensemble model runs and official guidance from agencies like MetService continue to show this narrow band, driving the balanced market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Wellington on September 4, 2026, reflects a tight cluster of probabilities around 9–14°C (all near 43.5% implied odds) because current forecast guidance shows substantial overlap in the expected overnight minimum.** Strong northwesterly winds associated with a persistent synoptic pattern are the dominant factor, with models indicating 20–30+ mph (roughly 9–13 m/s or higher) gusts through the period. These winds enhance mixing in the boundary layer, limiting radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures from dropping sharply. Forecasts converge on daytime highs near 14–16°C (57–61°F) with showers or rain likely (60–80% chance) under mostly cloudy skies, followed by partial clearing overnight. This setup produces a plausible minimum range of roughly 9–12°C (48–54°F), consistent with climatological norms for early September in Wellington, where marine influence and wind exposure typically moderate extremes. The spread across 9–14°C outcomes stems from uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed overnight, and cloud cover—variables that directly control how much the surface layer can cool. Lower-probability tails (7°C or below at 34.5%, 15°C+ at lower odds) would require either stronger-than-expected radiational cooling under clear, lighter winds or a delayed frontal passage keeping temperatures elevated. Ensemble model runs and official guidance from agencies like MetService continue to show this narrow band, driving the balanced market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan