Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan's 12th congressional district after defeating primary challengers in August 2026, positioning her as the clear general-election frontrunner in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The seat's consistent partisan lean, reflected in prior results where Democrats have exceeded 70 percent, combined with limited Republican recruitment and fundraising, drives trader consensus toward the incumbent. James Hooper advanced unopposed in the Republican primary for the November 3 contest. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle developments such as major national political changes, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout swings, though the district's structural advantages and historical margins make such outcomes uncommon.
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MI-12 House Election Winner
$39,254 Vol.
$39,254 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Rashida Tlaib (D)
97%
James Hooper (R)
<1%
$39,254 Vol.
$39,254 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Rashida Tlaib (D)
$21,751 Vol.
97%
James Hooper (R)
$17,503 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan's 12th congressional district after defeating primary challengers in August 2026, positioning her as the clear general-election frontrunner in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The seat's consistent partisan lean, reflected in prior results where Democrats have exceeded 70 percent, combined with limited Republican recruitment and fundraising, drives trader consensus toward the incumbent. James Hooper advanced unopposed in the Republican primary for the November 3 contest. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle developments such as major national political changes, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout swings, though the district's structural advantages and historical margins make such outcomes uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$39,254Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan's 12th congressional district after defeating primary challengers in August 2026, positioning her as the clear general-election frontrunner in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The seat's consistent partisan lean, reflected in prior results where Democrats have exceeded 70 percent, combined with limited Republican recruitment and fundraising, drives trader consensus toward the incumbent. James Hooper advanced unopposed in the Republican primary for the November 3 contest. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle developments such as major national political changes, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout swings, though the district's structural advantages and historical margins make such outcomes uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,254Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan's 12th congressional district after defeating primary challengers in August 2026, positioning her as the clear general-election frontrunner in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The seat's consistent partisan lean, reflected in prior results where Democrats have exceeded 70 percent, combined with limited Republican recruitment and fundraising, drives trader consensus toward the incumbent. James Hooper advanced unopposed in the Republican primary for the November 3 contest. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle developments such as major national political changes, candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout swings, though the district's structural advantages and historical margins make such outcomes uncommon.
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