Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers, tied with 2025 for the smallest in the satellite era, combined with near-record low extents persisting through April and early May, has strengthened trader consensus around a minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice cover, reduced multi-year ice from prior warm seasons, and Arctic amplification—where polar temperatures rise faster than the global average—amplify melt potential under typical summer insolation. Forecasters note possible El Niño influences that could further accelerate loss, though summer weather patterns like high-pressure systems over the Beaufort Sea remain key variables. Official NSIDC monitoring will track daily extent through the September minimum, when resolution criteria focus on the five-day average low.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 55%
4.2-4.4m sq km 17.9%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,608 Vol.
$48,608 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
55%
4.0-4.2m sq km
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
18%
4.4-4.6m sq km
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
6%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
2%
<4m sq km 55%
4.2-4.4m sq km 17.9%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,608 Vol.
$48,608 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$25,113 Vol.
55%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,459 Vol.
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,313 Vol.
18%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,381 Vol.
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,948 Vol.
6%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,199 Vol.
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,195 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers, tied with 2025 for the smallest in the satellite era, combined with near-record low extents persisting through April and early May, has strengthened trader consensus around a minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice cover, reduced multi-year ice from prior warm seasons, and Arctic amplification—where polar temperatures rise faster than the global average—amplify melt potential under typical summer insolation. Forecasters note possible El Niño influences that could further accelerate loss, though summer weather patterns like high-pressure systems over the Beaufort Sea remain key variables. Official NSIDC monitoring will track daily extent through the September minimum, when resolution criteria focus on the five-day average low.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$48,608Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers, tied with 2025 for the smallest in the satellite era, combined with near-record low extents persisting through April and early May, has strengthened trader consensus around a minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice cover, reduced multi-year ice from prior warm seasons, and Arctic amplification—where polar temperatures rise faster than the global average—amplify melt potential under typical summer insolation. Forecasters note possible El Niño influences that could further accelerate loss, though summer weather patterns like high-pressure systems over the Beaufort Sea remain key variables. Official NSIDC monitoring will track daily extent through the September minimum, when resolution criteria focus on the five-day average low.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$48,608Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers, tied with 2025 for the smallest in the satellite era, combined with near-record low extents persisting through April and early May, has strengthened trader consensus around a minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice cover, reduced multi-year ice from prior warm seasons, and Arctic amplification—where polar temperatures rise faster than the global average—amplify melt potential under typical summer insolation. Forecasters note possible El Niño influences that could further accelerate loss, though summer weather patterns like high-pressure systems over the Beaufort Sea remain key variables. Official NSIDC monitoring will track daily extent through the September minimum, when resolution criteria focus on the five-day average low.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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