Trader consensus for the New York City lowest temperature market shows notable uncertainty, with the 58–59°F outcome holding the top implied probability at 28.5% amid closely bunched alternatives. The primary driver is the latest National Weather Service model guidance, which highlights variable high-pressure ridging over the Northeast and potential cool-air advection from a weakening trough. Ensemble spreads between the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts currently favor minimums in the upper 50s, yet small shifts in wind direction or overnight cloud cover could easily push readings into the mid-50s or low 60s. Historical May climatology around 55°F provides context, while fresh model updates expected within the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 21 observation window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in NYC on May 21?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 21?
58-59°F 22%
54-55°F 20%
49°F or below 17.6%
60-61°F 14%
BARU
BARU
May 21, 2026
49°F or below
18%
50-51°F
6%
52-53°F
11%
54-55°F
17%
56-57°F
10%
58-59°F
28%
60-61°F
20%
62-63°F
10%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
3%
68°F or higher
2%
58-59°F 22%
54-55°F 20%
49°F or below 17.6%
60-61°F 14%
BARU
BARU
May 21, 2026
49°F or below
$18 Vol.
18%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
6%
52-53°F
$70 Vol.
11%
54-55°F
$5 Vol.
17%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
10%
58-59°F
$12 Vol.
28%
60-61°F
$10 Vol.
20%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
10%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
9%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
3%
68°F or higher
$61 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus for the New York City lowest temperature market shows notable uncertainty, with the 58–59°F outcome holding the top implied probability at 28.5% amid closely bunched alternatives. The primary driver is the latest National Weather Service model guidance, which highlights variable high-pressure ridging over the Northeast and potential cool-air advection from a weakening trough. Ensemble spreads between the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts currently favor minimums in the upper 50s, yet small shifts in wind direction or overnight cloud cover could easily push readings into the mid-50s or low 60s. Historical May climatology around 55°F provides context, while fresh model updates expected within the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 21 observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$177Tanggal Berakhir
May 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus for the New York City lowest temperature market shows notable uncertainty, with the 58–59°F outcome holding the top implied probability at 28.5% amid closely bunched alternatives. The primary driver is the latest National Weather Service model guidance, which highlights variable high-pressure ridging over the Northeast and potential cool-air advection from a weakening trough. Ensemble spreads between the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts currently favor minimums in the upper 50s, yet small shifts in wind direction or overnight cloud cover could easily push readings into the mid-50s or low 60s. Historical May climatology around 55°F provides context, while fresh model updates expected within the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 21 observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$177Tanggal Berakhir
May 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus for the New York City lowest temperature market shows notable uncertainty, with the 58–59°F outcome holding the top implied probability at 28.5% amid closely bunched alternatives. The primary driver is the latest National Weather Service model guidance, which highlights variable high-pressure ridging over the Northeast and potential cool-air advection from a weakening trough. Ensemble spreads between the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts currently favor minimums in the upper 50s, yet small shifts in wind direction or overnight cloud cover could easily push readings into the mid-50s or low 60s. Historical May climatology around 55°F provides context, while fresh model updates expected within the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 21 observation window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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