Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project New York City's lowest temperature on May 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F (64-65°F leading at 26.5% implied probability), driven by a building upper-level ridge over the Northeast fostering clear skies and light winds conducive to mild radiative cooling under a warm air mass. Differentiating factors include potential low-level moisture influx boosting higher bins (66-69°F) via cloud persistence, versus drier conditions and urban heat island amplification in Central Park observations favoring 62-63°F or below; historical May 18 lows average ~56°F, but recent spring warmth elevates baselines. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates today could shift odds ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in NYC on May 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 18?
64-65°F 27%
62-63°F 19%
66-67°F 19%
68-69°F 19%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
53°F or below
1%
54-55°F
5%
56-57°F
8%
58-59°F
11%
60-61°F
13%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
27%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
9%
72°F or higher
5%
64-65°F 27%
62-63°F 19%
66-67°F 19%
68-69°F 19%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
53°F or below
$1,260 Vol.
1%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
5%
56-57°F
$23 Vol.
8%
58-59°F
$17 Vol.
11%
60-61°F
$12 Vol.
13%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
19%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
27%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
19%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
19%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
9%
72°F or higher
$20 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project New York City's lowest temperature on May 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F (64-65°F leading at 26.5% implied probability), driven by a building upper-level ridge over the Northeast fostering clear skies and light winds conducive to mild radiative cooling under a warm air mass. Differentiating factors include potential low-level moisture influx boosting higher bins (66-69°F) via cloud persistence, versus drier conditions and urban heat island amplification in Central Park observations favoring 62-63°F or below; historical May 18 lows average ~56°F, but recent spring warmth elevates baselines. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates today could shift odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,333Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project New York City's lowest temperature on May 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F (64-65°F leading at 26.5% implied probability), driven by a building upper-level ridge over the Northeast fostering clear skies and light winds conducive to mild radiative cooling under a warm air mass. Differentiating factors include potential low-level moisture influx boosting higher bins (66-69°F) via cloud persistence, versus drier conditions and urban heat island amplification in Central Park observations favoring 62-63°F or below; historical May 18 lows average ~56°F, but recent spring warmth elevates baselines. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates today could shift odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,333Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project New York City's lowest temperature on May 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F (64-65°F leading at 26.5% implied probability), driven by a building upper-level ridge over the Northeast fostering clear skies and light winds conducive to mild radiative cooling under a warm air mass. Differentiating factors include potential low-level moisture influx boosting higher bins (66-69°F) via cloud persistence, versus drier conditions and urban heat island amplification in Central Park observations favoring 62-63°F or below; historical May 18 lows average ~56°F, but recent spring warmth elevates baselines. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates today could shift odds ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan