Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in NYC on May 14?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 14?
56-57°F 100.0%
45°F or below <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$21,412 Vol.
$21,412 Vol.
May 14, 2026
45°F or below
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
Yes
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64°F or higher
No
56-57°F 100.0%
45°F or below <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$21,412 Vol.
$21,412 Vol.
May 14, 2026
45°F or below
$869 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$913 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$808 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$1,225 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$1,028 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$2,727 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$8,374 Vol.
Yes
58-59°F
$2,407 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$1,248 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$619 Vol.
No
64°F or higher
$1,194 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$21,412Tanggal Berakhir
May 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,412Tanggal Berakhir
May 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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