Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency highlight substantial uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling over Tokyo through May 21, driven by a strengthening high-pressure ridge interacting with a passing frontal boundary. This setup can produce clear skies that allow minimum temperatures to drop below 11 °C or maintain mild conditions near or above 21 °C, depending on exact wind patterns and moisture levels. Historical May climatology shows average lows near 16 °C, yet current model spreads reflect typical springtime variability in the East Asian monsoon transition. Traders are weighting these divergent temperature outcomes nearly equally, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs ahead of the date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 21?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 21?
11°C or below 41%
21°C or higher 41%
17°C 18%
18°C 18%
BARU
BARU
May 21, 2026
11°C or below
41%
12°C
5%
13°C
10%
14°C
16%
15°C
12%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
15%
20°C
5%
21°C or higher
41%
11°C or below 41%
21°C or higher 41%
17°C 18%
18°C 18%
BARU
BARU
May 21, 2026
11°C or below
$18 Vol.
41%
12°C
$267 Vol.
5%
13°C
$55 Vol.
10%
14°C
$0 Vol.
16%
15°C
$0 Vol.
12%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$0 Vol.
15%
20°C
$0 Vol.
5%
21°C or higher
$15 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency highlight substantial uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling over Tokyo through May 21, driven by a strengthening high-pressure ridge interacting with a passing frontal boundary. This setup can produce clear skies that allow minimum temperatures to drop below 11 °C or maintain mild conditions near or above 21 °C, depending on exact wind patterns and moisture levels. Historical May climatology shows average lows near 16 °C, yet current model spreads reflect typical springtime variability in the East Asian monsoon transition. Traders are weighting these divergent temperature outcomes nearly equally, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$355Tanggal Berakhir
May 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency highlight substantial uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling over Tokyo through May 21, driven by a strengthening high-pressure ridge interacting with a passing frontal boundary. This setup can produce clear skies that allow minimum temperatures to drop below 11 °C or maintain mild conditions near or above 21 °C, depending on exact wind patterns and moisture levels. Historical May climatology shows average lows near 16 °C, yet current model spreads reflect typical springtime variability in the East Asian monsoon transition. Traders are weighting these divergent temperature outcomes nearly equally, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$355Tanggal Berakhir
May 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency highlight substantial uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling over Tokyo through May 21, driven by a strengthening high-pressure ridge interacting with a passing frontal boundary. This setup can produce clear skies that allow minimum temperatures to drop below 11 °C or maintain mild conditions near or above 21 °C, depending on exact wind patterns and moisture levels. Historical May climatology shows average lows near 16 °C, yet current model spreads reflect typical springtime variability in the East Asian monsoon transition. Traders are weighting these divergent temperature outcomes nearly equally, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs ahead of the date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan