Latest China Meteorological Administration and global model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate Beijing’s May 17 high will likely fall between 19°C and 21°C, driven by a weak cold front advecting northerly winds across the North China Plain alongside light rain and extensive low-level cloud cover that sharply reduces daytime insolation. These conditions suppress surface heating compared with typical mid-May climatology, when highs often reach 25–27°C under clearer skies. Key variables separating the leading brackets include the precise timing of frontal passage—earlier clearing could allow brief afternoon warming toward 22°C—while persistent overcast and boundary-layer mixing of cooler air favor readings at or below 19°C. Traders are weighting these model consensus details heavily ahead of official station observations tomorrow.