Latest numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–27°C for Beijing on May 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and modest subsidence. This places the market-implied odds near even between those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-range surface temperature forecasts. May climatology for the capital shows average highs of 26–28°C, and current conditions align with a typical late-spring ridge pattern that limits both strong advection and significant cloud cover. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed that could nudge the peak by 1°C either way before resolution on the official observation at Beijing’s central station.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Beijing on May 18?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 18?
26°C 35%
27°C 26%
25°C 18%
28°C 17%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
8%
24°C
6%
25°C
18%
26°C
30%
27°C
26%
28°C
17%
29°C
8%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
26°C 35%
27°C 26%
25°C 18%
28°C 17%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
$312 Vol.
2%
23°C
$22 Vol.
8%
24°C
$152 Vol.
6%
25°C
$0 Vol.
18%
26°C
$31 Vol.
30%
27°C
$0 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
17%
29°C
$0 Vol.
8%
30°C
$11 Vol.
2%
31°C
$115 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$430 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–27°C for Beijing on May 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and modest subsidence. This places the market-implied odds near even between those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-range surface temperature forecasts. May climatology for the capital shows average highs of 26–28°C, and current conditions align with a typical late-spring ridge pattern that limits both strong advection and significant cloud cover. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed that could nudge the peak by 1°C either way before resolution on the official observation at Beijing’s central station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$745Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–27°C for Beijing on May 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and modest subsidence. This places the market-implied odds near even between those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-range surface temperature forecasts. May climatology for the capital shows average highs of 26–28°C, and current conditions align with a typical late-spring ridge pattern that limits both strong advection and significant cloud cover. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed that could nudge the peak by 1°C either way before resolution on the official observation at Beijing’s central station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$745Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAALatest numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–27°C for Beijing on May 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and modest subsidence. This places the market-implied odds near even between those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-range surface temperature forecasts. May climatology for the capital shows average highs of 26–28°C, and current conditions align with a typical late-spring ridge pattern that limits both strong advection and significant cloud cover. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed that could nudge the peak by 1°C either way before resolution on the official observation at Beijing’s central station.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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