Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+21 partisan voting index, enabling incumbent Representative Mark Alford to secure 71 percent of the vote in the prior general election. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5 percent. The August 4 Republican primary features Alford against limited intra-party opposition, while Democratic candidates remain unheralded with no evident path to close the structural gap ahead of the November 3 general election. A national Democratic wave or court-mandated redistricting could narrow margins, though such shifts appear unlikely based on current electoral geography and historical patterns in the district.
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MO-04 House Election Winner
$30,653 Vol.
$30,653 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$30,653 Vol.
$30,653 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$16,733 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$13,920 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+21 partisan voting index, enabling incumbent Representative Mark Alford to secure 71 percent of the vote in the prior general election. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5 percent. The August 4 Republican primary features Alford against limited intra-party opposition, while Democratic candidates remain unheralded with no evident path to close the structural gap ahead of the November 3 general election. A national Democratic wave or court-mandated redistricting could narrow margins, though such shifts appear unlikely based on current electoral geography and historical patterns in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$30,653Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+21 partisan voting index, enabling incumbent Representative Mark Alford to secure 71 percent of the vote in the prior general election. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5 percent. The August 4 Republican primary features Alford against limited intra-party opposition, while Democratic candidates remain unheralded with no evident path to close the structural gap ahead of the November 3 general election. A national Democratic wave or court-mandated redistricting could narrow margins, though such shifts appear unlikely based on current electoral geography and historical patterns in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,653Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+21 partisan voting index, enabling incumbent Representative Mark Alford to secure 71 percent of the vote in the prior general election. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5 percent. The August 4 Republican primary features Alford against limited intra-party opposition, while Democratic candidates remain unheralded with no evident path to close the structural gap ahead of the November 3 general election. A national Democratic wave or court-mandated redistricting could narrow margins, though such shifts appear unlikely based on current electoral geography and historical patterns in the district.
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