Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per NOAA/NHC Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS moment magnitude, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst tracked by NASA CNEOS through mid-May. Recent M7.4 quakes in Japan and Indonesia fell short of the extreme 8.5+ threshold, while March fireballs over Ohio and Texas measured below 10kt; 47 volcanoes erupted but none reached VEI 6. NOAA's 82% El Niño odds by summer and Colorado State University's below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecast suppress peak-season risks from June-November, though seismic and volcanic events remain inherently unpredictable with ongoing agency monitoring.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$218,211 Vol.
$218,211 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$218,211 Vol.
$218,211 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per NOAA/NHC Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS moment magnitude, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst tracked by NASA CNEOS through mid-May. Recent M7.4 quakes in Japan and Indonesia fell short of the extreme 8.5+ threshold, while March fireballs over Ohio and Texas measured below 10kt; 47 volcanoes erupted but none reached VEI 6. NOAA's 82% El Niño odds by summer and Colorado State University's below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecast suppress peak-season risks from June-November, though seismic and volcanic events remain inherently unpredictable with ongoing agency monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$218,211Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per NOAA/NHC Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS moment magnitude, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst tracked by NASA CNEOS through mid-May. Recent M7.4 quakes in Japan and Indonesia fell short of the extreme 8.5+ threshold, while March fireballs over Ohio and Texas measured below 10kt; 47 volcanoes erupted but none reached VEI 6. NOAA's 82% El Niño odds by summer and Colorado State University's below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecast suppress peak-season risks from June-November, though seismic and volcanic events remain inherently unpredictable with ongoing agency monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$218,211Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per NOAA/NHC Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS moment magnitude, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst tracked by NASA CNEOS through mid-May. Recent M7.4 quakes in Japan and Indonesia fell short of the extreme 8.5+ threshold, while March fireballs over Ohio and Texas measured below 10kt; 47 volcanoes erupted but none reached VEI 6. NOAA's 82% El Niño odds by summer and Colorado State University's below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecast suppress peak-season risks from June-November, though seismic and volcanic events remain inherently unpredictable with ongoing agency monitoring.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan