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Pemilihan Umum·UK

Next First Minister of Scotland?

icon for Next First Minister of Scotland?
Pemilihan Umum·UK

Next First Minister of Scotland?

John Swinney 99.6%

Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%

Malcolm Offord <1%

Russell Findlay <1%

Polymarket

$11,060 Vol.

John Swinney 99.6%

Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%

Malcolm Offord <1%

Russell Findlay <1%

Polymarket

$11,060 Vol.

icon for John Swinney

John Swinney

$3,218 Vol.

100%

icon for Alex Cole-Hamilton

Alex Cole-Hamilton

$1,346 Vol.

1%

icon for Malcolm Offord

Malcolm Offord

$912 Vol.

1%

icon for Russell Findlay

Russell Findlay

$2,554 Vol.

1%

icon for Anas Sarwar

Anas Sarwar

$1,945 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ross Greer

Ross Greer

$515 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gillian Mackay

Gillian Mackay

$570 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election, in which the SNP secured the largest share of seats though short of a majority, John Swinney as party leader holds a near-certain position for re-nomination as First Minister. Incumbency since 2024, combined with the absence of any internal SNP leadership contest, has reinforced trader consensus around his continued tenure. Parliament is expected to vote on his appointment in the coming days, with negotiations focused on securing support from other parties excluding Reform UK. Potential challenges remain limited but could arise from a sudden loss of confidence vote, unexpected coalition arrangements among opposition parties, or an unforeseen resignation tied to policy setbacks or internal pressures.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,060
Tanggal Berakhir
May 7, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election, in which the SNP secured the largest share of seats though short of a majority, John Swinney as party leader holds a near-certain position for re-nomination as First Minister. Incumbency since 2024, combined with the absence of any internal SNP leadership contest, has reinforced trader consensus around his continued tenure. Parliament is expected to vote on his appointment in the coming days, with negotiations focused on securing support from other parties excluding Reform UK. Potential challenges remain limited but could arise from a sudden loss of confidence vote, unexpected coalition arrangements among opposition parties, or an unforeseen resignation tied to policy setbacks or internal pressures.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,060
Tanggal Berakhir
May 7, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Next First Minister of Scotland?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "John Swinney" di 100%, diikuti oleh "Alex Cole-Hamilton" di 0%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 100¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Next First Minister of Scotland?" telah menghasilkan $11.1K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 23, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Next First Minister of Scotland?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Next First Minister of Scotland?" adalah "John Swinney" di 100%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Alex Cole-Hamilton" di 0%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Next First Minister of Scotland?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.