Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPA-15 House Election Winner
PA-15 House Election Winner
$13,384 Vol.
$13,384 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$13,384 Vol.
$13,384 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$5,359 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$8,025 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$13,384Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,384Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
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