Raymond McKay holds a commanding position in the September 9 Republican primary for Rhode Island’s U.S. Senate seat, with traders assigning him the overwhelming share of probability. McKay has maintained an active campaign focused on statewide outreach and fundraising, while Allen Waters has redirected his efforts to an independent bid for Providence mayor. This shift has left McKay as the primary active contender in a low-profile race without an incumbent. The market’s consensus aligns with the sparse candidate field and limited recent primary activity, though the September primary date leaves room for any late developments in voter turnout or endorsements to influence the outcome.