Traders see a tightly contested field for the second-best AI agent lab by late October, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability reflecting broad uncertainty over which labs will demonstrate superior agentic capabilities. Recent model releases and benchmark gains by labs like Moonshot, Anthropic, and Google have kept their prospects alive alongside OpenAI, while emerging players such as DeepSeek and MiniMax add further fragmentation. Differentiating factors include demonstrated multi-step reasoning, tool-use reliability, safety alignments, and developer ecosystem traction. With resolution approaching, upcoming developer conferences, capability demos, and third-party evaluations could quickly shift sentiment by clarifying relative progress in large language model agent performance.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOpenAI 36%
Moonshot 26%
Anthropic 25%
Meituan 24%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
36%
Moonshot
26%
Anthropic
25%
Meituan
24%
Z.ai
23%
DeepSeek
23%
Xiaomi
23%
MiniMax
23%
Nvidia
23%
Amazon
23%
22%
SpaceXAI
21%
Alibaba
20%
Microsoft
20%
Meta
12%
Mistral
11%
ByteDance
18%
Baidu
8%
OpenAI 36%
Moonshot 26%
Anthropic 25%
Meituan 24%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
$44 Vol.
36%
Moonshot
$44 Vol.
26%
Anthropic
$44 Vol.
25%
Meituan
$81 Vol.
24%
Z.ai
$81 Vol.
23%
DeepSeek
$112 Vol.
23%
Xiaomi
$44 Vol.
23%
MiniMax
$130 Vol.
23%
Nvidia
$91 Vol.
23%
Amazon
$92 Vol.
23%
$44 Vol.
22%
SpaceXAI
$44 Vol.
21%
Alibaba
$44 Vol.
20%
Microsoft
$44 Vol.
20%
Meta
$44 Vol.
12%
Mistral
$81 Vol.
11%
ByteDance
$63 Vol.
18%
Baidu
$44 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested field for the second-best AI agent lab by late October, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability reflecting broad uncertainty over which labs will demonstrate superior agentic capabilities. Recent model releases and benchmark gains by labs like Moonshot, Anthropic, and Google have kept their prospects alive alongside OpenAI, while emerging players such as DeepSeek and MiniMax add further fragmentation. Differentiating factors include demonstrated multi-step reasoning, tool-use reliability, safety alignments, and developer ecosystem traction. With resolution approaching, upcoming developer conferences, capability demos, and third-party evaluations could quickly shift sentiment by clarifying relative progress in large language model agent performance.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,174Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested field for the second-best AI agent lab by late October, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability reflecting broad uncertainty over which labs will demonstrate superior agentic capabilities. Recent model releases and benchmark gains by labs like Moonshot, Anthropic, and Google have kept their prospects alive alongside OpenAI, while emerging players such as DeepSeek and MiniMax add further fragmentation. Differentiating factors include demonstrated multi-step reasoning, tool-use reliability, safety alignments, and developer ecosystem traction. With resolution approaching, upcoming developer conferences, capability demos, and third-party evaluations could quickly shift sentiment by clarifying relative progress in large language model agent performance.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,174Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested field for the second-best AI agent lab by late October, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability reflecting broad uncertainty over which labs will demonstrate superior agentic capabilities. Recent model releases and benchmark gains by labs like Moonshot, Anthropic, and Google have kept their prospects alive alongside OpenAI, while emerging players such as DeepSeek and MiniMax add further fragmentation. Differentiating factors include demonstrated multi-step reasoning, tool-use reliability, safety alignments, and developer ecosystem traction. With resolution approaching, upcoming developer conferences, capability demos, and third-party evaluations could quickly shift sentiment by clarifying relative progress in large language model agent performance.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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