Trader consensus around a 90.5 percent probability that President Trump remains in office through 2026 reflects the lack of any viable constitutional path to removal before 2027. Republican majorities in Congress have prevented Democratic-led impeachment resolutions from advancing beyond introduction, while Senate conviction thresholds remain out of reach. Trump continues signing executive orders on sanctions, regulatory reform, and immigration enforcement, with no public signals of resignation or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Isolated health speculation in media reports has not produced verifiable medical findings or institutional action that would alter succession timelines. Upcoming 2026 midterms could shift House control, yet current legislative arithmetic and the absence of bipartisan support keep early removal scenarios improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTrump keluar sebagai Presiden sebelum 2027?
Trump keluar sebagai Presiden sebelum 2027?
Ya
$8,518,570 Vol.
$8,518,570 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ya
$8,518,570 Vol.
$8,518,570 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus around a 90.5 percent probability that President Trump remains in office through 2026 reflects the lack of any viable constitutional path to removal before 2027. Republican majorities in Congress have prevented Democratic-led impeachment resolutions from advancing beyond introduction, while Senate conviction thresholds remain out of reach. Trump continues signing executive orders on sanctions, regulatory reform, and immigration enforcement, with no public signals of resignation or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Isolated health speculation in media reports has not produced verifiable medical findings or institutional action that would alter succession timelines. Upcoming 2026 midterms could shift House control, yet current legislative arithmetic and the absence of bipartisan support keep early removal scenarios improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$8,518,570Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus around a 90.5 percent probability that President Trump remains in office through 2026 reflects the lack of any viable constitutional path to removal before 2027. Republican majorities in Congress have prevented Democratic-led impeachment resolutions from advancing beyond introduction, while Senate conviction thresholds remain out of reach. Trump continues signing executive orders on sanctions, regulatory reform, and immigration enforcement, with no public signals of resignation or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Isolated health speculation in media reports has not produced verifiable medical findings or institutional action that would alter succession timelines. Upcoming 2026 midterms could shift House control, yet current legislative arithmetic and the absence of bipartisan support keep early removal scenarios improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,518,570Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus around a 90.5 percent probability that President Trump remains in office through 2026 reflects the lack of any viable constitutional path to removal before 2027. Republican majorities in Congress have prevented Democratic-led impeachment resolutions from advancing beyond introduction, while Senate conviction thresholds remain out of reach. Trump continues signing executive orders on sanctions, regulatory reform, and immigration enforcement, with no public signals of resignation or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Isolated health speculation in media reports has not produced verifiable medical findings or institutional action that would alter succession timelines. Upcoming 2026 midterms could shift House control, yet current legislative arithmetic and the absence of bipartisan support keep early removal scenarios improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan