Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and LM Market Cap with leading scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks, driving the 85.5% implied probability that the company will hold the #1 model by end of October. Recent September releases and benchmark updates have reinforced this edge over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini variants, while lower odds for Meta, Moonshot, and others reflect gaps in verified performance on key metrics like SWE-bench and multimodal tasks. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, treats these live rankings as the strongest near-term signal, though new model drops or benchmark shifts before resolution could still alter positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 86%
Google 6.6%
Meta 5.5%
OpenAI 3.0%
$21,798 Vol.
$21,798 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
7%
Meta
6%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 6.6%
Meta 5.5%
OpenAI 3.0%
$21,798 Vol.
$21,798 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$13,184 Vol.
86%
$554 Vol.
7%
Meta
$493 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$871 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$449 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$418 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$458 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$263 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$394 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$420 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$387 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$378 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$382 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$378 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$375 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$379 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$339 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$382 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$514 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$399 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$383 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and LM Market Cap with leading scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks, driving the 85.5% implied probability that the company will hold the #1 model by end of October. Recent September releases and benchmark updates have reinforced this edge over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini variants, while lower odds for Meta, Moonshot, and others reflect gaps in verified performance on key metrics like SWE-bench and multimodal tasks. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, treats these live rankings as the strongest near-term signal, though new model drops or benchmark shifts before resolution could still alter positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$21,798Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and LM Market Cap with leading scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks, driving the 85.5% implied probability that the company will hold the #1 model by end of October. Recent September releases and benchmark updates have reinforced this edge over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini variants, while lower odds for Meta, Moonshot, and others reflect gaps in verified performance on key metrics like SWE-bench and multimodal tasks. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, treats these live rankings as the strongest near-term signal, though new model drops or benchmark shifts before resolution could still alter positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$21,798Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and LM Market Cap with leading scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks, driving the 85.5% implied probability that the company will hold the #1 model by end of October. Recent September releases and benchmark updates have reinforced this edge over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini variants, while lower odds for Meta, Moonshot, and others reflect gaps in verified performance on key metrics like SWE-bench and multimodal tasks. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, treats these live rankings as the strongest near-term signal, though new model drops or benchmark shifts before resolution could still alter positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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