Anthropic holds a commanding lead in market-implied odds for the top Text Arena Math AI model by end of October, driven by consistent first-place rankings across independent math leaderboards and recent capability jumps. Its Claude Opus 5 and related variants have posted top scores on MathArena competitions, achieved a perfect 2026 IMO result, and delivered a major advance on a longstanding Riemann hypothesis bound in mid-August. These outcomes reflect stronger multi-step reasoning chains and abstract problem-solving relative to competitors. OpenAI and Google trail with lower probabilities, reflecting slower recent gains on the same uncontaminated math evaluations. Traders appear focused on whether Anthropic sustains this edge through October amid ongoing model iterations from other labs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 71%
OpenAI 16%
Google 7.9%
DeepSeek 4.5%

Anthropic
71%

OpenAI
16%

8%

DeepSeek
5%

Xiaomi
3%

Alibaba
3%

Tencent
2%

Meta
2%

Meituan
2%

Moonshot
2%

Amazon
2%

SpaceXAI
2%

StepFun
2%

Z.ai
1%

Nvidia
1%

MiniMax
1%

ByteDance
1%

Mistral
1%

Microsoft
1%

Baidu
1%
Anthropic 71%
OpenAI 16%
Google 7.9%
DeepSeek 4.5%

Anthropic
71%

OpenAI
16%

8%

DeepSeek
5%

Xiaomi
3%

Alibaba
3%

Tencent
2%

Meta
2%

Meituan
2%

Moonshot
2%

Amazon
2%

SpaceXAI
2%

StepFun
2%

Z.ai
1%

Nvidia
1%

MiniMax
1%

ByteDance
1%

Mistral
1%

Microsoft
1%

Baidu
1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding lead in market-implied odds for the top Text Arena Math AI model by end of October, driven by consistent first-place rankings across independent math leaderboards and recent capability jumps. Its Claude Opus 5 and related variants have posted top scores on MathArena competitions, achieved a perfect 2026 IMO result, and delivered a major advance on a longstanding Riemann hypothesis bound in mid-August. These outcomes reflect stronger multi-step reasoning chains and abstract problem-solving relative to competitors. OpenAI and Google trail with lower probabilities, reflecting slower recent gains on the same uncontaminated math evaluations. Traders appear focused on whether Anthropic sustains this edge through October amid ongoing model iterations from other labs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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