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Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

icon for Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?
Pemilihan Umum·Trump

Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

Scott Wiener 94%

Saikat Chakrabarti 7.6%

Connie Chan 2.3%

Cole Bettles <1%

Polymarket

$357,865 Vol.

Scott Wiener 94%

Saikat Chakrabarti 7.6%

Connie Chan 2.3%

Cole Bettles <1%

Polymarket

$357,865 Vol.

Scott Wiener

$39,987 Vol.

86%

Saikat Chakrabarti

$23,596 Vol.

8%

Connie Chan

$206,212 Vol.

2%

Cole Bettles

$15,637 Vol.

<1%

Darren Helton

$19,351 Vol.

<1%

Jingchao Xiong

$41,386 Vol.

<1%

David Ganezer

$11,696 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Senator Scott Wiener’s established record in California politics, combined with superior fundraising and the California Democratic Party’s endorsement, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner in the June 2 top-two primary for the open CA-11 seat. Traders reflect this dominance in the market pricing because Wiener has drawn broad institutional support and individual donors while outpacing rivals such as Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan in early visibility and resources. The race remains a Democratic contest in a safely blue district, with Wiener’s legislative experience on housing, health care, and progressive priorities providing a structural edge. A late surge by Chakrabarti’s self-funded campaign or unusually high turnout among progressive voters could still narrow the gap, though no such shift has materialized in recent weeks.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$357,865
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 2, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Senator Scott Wiener’s established record in California politics, combined with superior fundraising and the California Democratic Party’s endorsement, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner in the June 2 top-two primary for the open CA-11 seat. Traders reflect this dominance in the market pricing because Wiener has drawn broad institutional support and individual donors while outpacing rivals such as Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan in early visibility and resources. The race remains a Democratic contest in a safely blue district, with Wiener’s legislative experience on housing, health care, and progressive priorities providing a structural edge. A late surge by Chakrabarti’s self-funded campaign or unusually high turnout among progressive voters could still narrow the gap, though no such shift has materialized in recent weeks.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$357,865
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 2, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Scott Wiener" di 86%, diikuti oleh "Saikat Chakrabarti" di 8%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 86¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 86% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" telah menghasilkan $357.9K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 24, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" adalah "Scott Wiener" di 86%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 86% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Saikat Chakrabarti" di 8%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.