Recent developments surrounding the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC, effective May 1, 2026, have not prompted other members to follow suit this year, supporting traders' 68.5% implied probability against another departure. The UAE cited national interests and greater production flexibility amid quota disputes and regional energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, a move that reduced the group's collective output influence but left core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait focused on maintaining coordinated supply management. No official statements or diplomatic signals from remaining members indicate parallel plans, and historical patterns show isolated exits rather than rapid succession. With OPEC meetings scheduled through the remainder of 2026, the current trader consensus reflects limited evidence of widespread dissatisfaction capable of driving additional withdrawals before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
$92,820 Vol.
$92,820 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$92,820 Vol.
$92,820 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments surrounding the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC, effective May 1, 2026, have not prompted other members to follow suit this year, supporting traders' 68.5% implied probability against another departure. The UAE cited national interests and greater production flexibility amid quota disputes and regional energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, a move that reduced the group's collective output influence but left core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait focused on maintaining coordinated supply management. No official statements or diplomatic signals from remaining members indicate parallel plans, and historical patterns show isolated exits rather than rapid succession. With OPEC meetings scheduled through the remainder of 2026, the current trader consensus reflects limited evidence of widespread dissatisfaction capable of driving additional withdrawals before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$92,820Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments surrounding the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC, effective May 1, 2026, have not prompted other members to follow suit this year, supporting traders' 68.5% implied probability against another departure. The UAE cited national interests and greater production flexibility amid quota disputes and regional energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, a move that reduced the group's collective output influence but left core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait focused on maintaining coordinated supply management. No official statements or diplomatic signals from remaining members indicate parallel plans, and historical patterns show isolated exits rather than rapid succession. With OPEC meetings scheduled through the remainder of 2026, the current trader consensus reflects limited evidence of widespread dissatisfaction capable of driving additional withdrawals before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$92,820Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments surrounding the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC, effective May 1, 2026, have not prompted other members to follow suit this year, supporting traders' 68.5% implied probability against another departure. The UAE cited national interests and greater production flexibility amid quota disputes and regional energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, a move that reduced the group's collective output influence but left core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait focused on maintaining coordinated supply management. No official statements or diplomatic signals from remaining members indicate parallel plans, and historical patterns show isolated exits rather than rapid succession. With OPEC meetings scheduled through the remainder of 2026, the current trader consensus reflects limited evidence of widespread dissatisfaction capable of driving additional withdrawals before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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