Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sustained full diplomatic relations, including reciprocal embassies and routine official contacts, despite proxy frictions in Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia that peaked in late 2025 and early 2026. Coordinated public statements by senior officials in July 2026 explicitly reaffirmed shared history and fraternal ties after months of tension, while economic interdependence through trade, investment, and GCC frameworks continues. Traders assign a 95.8% probability to no severance in 2026 because these structural links and incentives for managed competition outweigh episodic rivalries. Late-year shifts could still arise from abrupt escalations in regional proxies, major OPEC divergences, or unforeseen leadership moves, though such outcomes have not materialized through mid-August.